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29

LGIH

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

LGI Homes, Inc.

Conservative #1102Aggressive #1296Moderate Risk
$51.96+2.10%
Day High$52.22
Day Low$50.79
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $4052W High $83
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
17.6
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-22.6%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-63.0%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.79

Why This Score

LGIH scores 29.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (77/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (16.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. LGIH's rank of #1102 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score29.2
Fundamental Score30.6
ML Score23.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
47.9
6 Month
53.5
Primary
1 Year
56.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (260.0%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
65
Grade B
Base
27.0
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.5
Final
29.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

37AVG
Value82
Quality28
Growth0
Stability58
Investment19

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)28.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)44.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.9% to +0.8%
Medium-term
-8.6% to +1.4%
Long-term
-11.2% to +2.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 23

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.6/100
Target Upside+33.3%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-15.4%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.10)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality-0.105
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P3
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P69
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-1.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 31 relative to sector peers31/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 23th percentileP23
Blended score: 80% fundamental (31) + 20% ML (23) = 29.129.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 39% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (260.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #95 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LGIH29.217.6-22.6%4.3%$1.2B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

LGI Homes, Inc. designs, constructs, and sells homes. It offers entry-level homes, such as attached and detached homes, and active adult homes under the LGI Homes brand name; and luxury series homes under the Terrata Homes brand name. The company also engages in the wholesale business, which include building and selling homes to companies looking to acquire single-family rental properties. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 101 communities. The company serves customers in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, Nevada, West Virginia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. LGI Homes, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

CEO
Eric Thomas Lipar
Employees
1,000
Beta
1.90
Industry
Residential Construction
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-35.6%
High: $80.66
From 52W Low
+30.9%
Low: $39.7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$55.00
Below
20-Day
$55.50
Below
50-Day
$50.90
Above
200-Day
$52.60
Below
60-Day Support
$41.3
60-Day Resistance
$63.66
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.27%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$474M$397M$483M$351M
Gross Profit$83M$86M$111M$74M
Operating Income$19M$21M$40M$169,000
Net Income$17M$20M$32M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.75$0.85$1.36$0.17
Gross Margin17.5%21.7%22.9%21.0%
Operating Margin3.9%5.4%8.2%0.0%
Net Margin3.7%5.0%6.5%1.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 17.6

Tradability FilterGrade B — 65/100Score impact: -14.6pt

Volume
68
382K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.2B
Range
100
109% spread
Composite Liquidity Score65/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$105.07$188.0056.6%Wide
2022$71.73$155.4373.7%Wide
2023$84.16$141.9151.1%Wide
2024$84.00$132.2344.6%Wide
2025$39.70$97.2584%Wide
3-Year Range
112.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.21x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
109.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.