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76

MAR

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Marriott International

Conservative #28Aggressive #160Low RiskMixed 49ML↑ 26pt
Market Cap
$93.8B
P/E Ratio
37.2
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
4.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
9.5%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

MAR scores 75.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -4.53) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (27%) — steady appreciation without overheating.

No material penalties applied. MAR ranks #28 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score75.9
Fundamental Score69.3
ML Score82.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.8
6 Month
91.4
Primary
1 Year
96.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
74.2
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-2.3
Final
75.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth60
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)87.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.2% to +12.7%
Medium-term
+11.7% to +20.1%
Long-term
+18.0% to +29.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 82

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+4.1%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.84)
Relative Strength vs Sector+26.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality+0.262
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P17
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P32
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (62.2) + 9% ML (85.3) + SHAP(+5.0) = 69.2—
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.9%Low
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($93.8B market cap)+3.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 26pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #1 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for MAR.

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A — 100/100Score impact: +4.1pt

Volume
100
1.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$557M/day
Float
100
217M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$93.8B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$127.23$171.6829.7%Moderate
2022$131.01$195.9039.7%Wide
2023$147.10$226.6342.6%Wide
2024$204.55$295.4536.4%Wide
2025$205.40$316.6942.6%Wide
3-Year Range
73.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
82.0%
Outstanding Shares
265M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.