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CASY

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Caseys General Stores, Inc.

Conservative #193Aggressive #112Low RiskModerate 60ML↑ 20pt
$675.74-0.84%
Day High$685.54
Day Low$670.27
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$25.0B
52W Low $37252W High $686
Market Cap
$24.7B
P/E Ratio
41.0
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
7.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
8.9%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.84

Why This Score

CASY scores 65.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 41.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-1.9 points) applied. CASY's rank of #193 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.1
Fundamental Score57.4
ML Score85.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.8
6 Month
85.9
Primary
1 Year
90.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
63.0
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-1.9
Final
65.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value55
Quality55
Growth60
Stability60
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)90.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)69.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.4% to +10.6%
Medium-term
+9.0% to +16.9%
Long-term
+13.5% to +24.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 85

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.6/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage24 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.3/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+26.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.57)
Relative Strength vs Sector+60.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.559
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P66
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P54
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.8) + 9% ML (81.6) + SHAP(+4.4) = 68.0—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.1%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($24.7B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.4pt (ML 20pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #13 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy24 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 8Sell: 1
Price Target
$631consensus
Low $530Median $625High $730
-6.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names. Its stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; beverages; tobacco and nicotine products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. The company's stores also provide motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; and gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition, its stores offer various products, include soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, electronic accessories, housewares, and pet supplies; and lotto/lottery and prepaid cards. Further, the company operates two stores that sells tobacco and nicotine products; one liquor store; and one grocery store. As of April 30, 2022, it operated 2,452 convenience stores. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

CEO
Darren Rebelez
Employees
20,935
Beta
0.68
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.4%
High: $685.54
From 52W Low
+81.6%
Low: $372.09
Moving Averages
10-Day
$665.70
Above
20-Day
$651.60
Above
50-Day
$611.40
Above
200-Day
$542.10
Above
60-Day Support
$529.84
60-Day Resistance
$685.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 87/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+24.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.65%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.98x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$4.5B$4.6B$4.0B$3.9B
Gross Profit$1.1B$1.0B$926M$913M
Operating Income$299M$305M$156M$137M
Net Income$206M$215M$98M$87M
EPS (Diluted)$5.53$5.77$2.63$2.33
Gross Margin24.9%22.0%23.2%23.4%
Operating Margin6.6%6.7%3.9%3.5%
Net Margin4.6%4.7%2.5%2.2%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalEarnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 80/100Score impact: -11.5pt

Volume
62
323K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$217M/day
Float
67
37M shares
Mkt Cap
87
$24.7B
Range
100
82% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$181.25$229.1823.4%Narrow
2022$170.82$249.9037.6%Wide
2023$202.13$286.6234.6%Moderate
2024$268.07$439.6848.5%Wide
2025$372.09$575.9843%Wide
3-Year Range
96.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
37M
Bid-Ask Spread
82.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.