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75

ULTA

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Conservative #37Aggressive #180Low RiskMixed 40ML↑ 30pt
$684.27-0.32%
Day High$692.00
Day Low$677.31
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$30.7B
52W Low $30952W High $715
Market Cap
$30.6B
P/E Ratio
26.2
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
0.8%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-7.0%
Profit Margin
10.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.77

Why This Score

ULTA scores 75.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 48.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.

No material penalties applied. ULTA ranks #37 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score75.1
Fundamental Score67.8
ML Score88.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.7
6 Month
93.5
Primary
1 Year
98.5

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
71.9
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-0.8
Final
75.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth45
Stability60
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)93.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+11.9% to +18.1%
Medium-term
+17.4% to +26.6%
Long-term
+28.4% to +41.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 88

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+47.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.45)
Relative Strength vs Sector+85.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.823
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P33
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P35
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P48
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 67 relative to sector peers67/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 97th percentileP97
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (67.2) + 9% ML (97.3) + SHAP(+3.1) = 73.0—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.9%. Stability bonus of +8.2 pointsLow
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.3pt (87% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($30.6B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.0pt (conviction=40)—
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #3 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy47 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 25Hold: 20Sell: 1
Price Target
$694consensus
Low $425Median $700High $790
+1.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

CEO
Kecia L. Steelman
Employees
20,000
Beta
0.83
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.3%
High: $714.97
From 52W Low
+121.4%
Low: $309.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$684.60
Below
20-Day
$676.20
Above
50-Day
$651.40
Above
200-Day
$541.50
Above
60-Day Support
$530.09
60-Day Resistance
$714.97
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 88/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+26.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.86%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.83x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$2.9B$2.8B$2.8B$3.5B
Gross Profit$1.2B$1.1B$1.1B$1.3B
Operating Income$315M$350M$404M$518M
Net Income$231M$261M$305M$393M
EPS (Diluted)$5.14$5.78$6.70$8.46
Gross Margin40.4%39.2%39.1%38.2%
Operating Margin11.0%12.6%14.2%14.9%
Net Margin8.1%9.4%10.7%11.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalProfit margin 10.6%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: +0.2pt

Volume
87
668K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$448M/day
Float
74
44M shares
Mkt Cap
90
$30.6B
Range
100
131% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 3/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$297.29$417.8533.7%Moderate
2022$330.80$483.8037.6%Wide
2023$368.02$556.6040.8%Wide
2024$318.17$574.7657.5%Wide
2025$309.01$616.3466.4%Wide
3-Year Range
66.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
45M
Bid-Ask Spread
131.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.