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AEVA

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Aeva Technologies, Inc.

Conservative #1459Aggressive #1285High RiskFโ†‘ 27pt
$13.64+0.00%
Day High$14.38
Day Low$12.97
Volume2.6M
Mkt Cap$819M
52W Low $352W High $39
Market Cap
$753M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
110.2%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-2.0%
Profit Margin
-1031.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

AEVA scores 0.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (279%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (59.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -24.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AEVA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score0.0
Fundamental Score18.7
ML Score0.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
1.0
6 Month
1.1
Primary
1 Year
1.2

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 10 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
4.9
SHAP
+0.1
Factors
-1.7
Conviction
-2.8
Divergence
-0.6
Final
0.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

32AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth69
Stability28
Investment13

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)32.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)71.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-41.4% to -29.4%
Medium-term
-57.4% to -41.4%
Long-term
-73.8% to -49.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 0

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.0/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+2.8%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.6%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+287.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector+278.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.7)
Momentum Quality+0.824
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P100
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P3
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 19 relative to sector peers19/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 0th percentileP0
Blended score: 80% fundamental (19) + 20% ML (0) = 15.015.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.6%; Drawdown 70% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 279% โ†’ -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -2.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.6pt (ML 19pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, ANOMALY_MARGIN, SPEC_MICRO (10.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #114 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AEVA0.0N/A110.2%-1031.1%$753M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 2
Price Target
$20consensus
Low $20Median $20High $20
+46.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Aeva Technologies, Inc., through its frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) sensing technology, designs a 4D LiDAR-on-chip that enables the adoption of LiDAR across various applications. from automated driving to consumer electronics, consumer health, industrial automation, and security application. The company was founded in 2017 is based in Mountain View, California.

CEO
Soroush Salehian Dardashti
Employees
276
Beta
2.10
Industry
Auto - Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-64.8%
High: $38.8
From 52W Low
+441.3%
Low: $2.52
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.00
Above
20-Day
$12.90
Above
50-Day
$14.70
Below
200-Day
$17.10
Below
60-Day Support
$10.22
60-Day Resistance
$22.62
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-20.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+18.79%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.48x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
24
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$6M$4M$6M$3M
Gross Profit$1M$430,000$-3M$310,000
Operating Income$-29M$-33M$-35M$-30M
Net Income$-25M$107M$-193M$-35M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.40$1.99$-3.50$-0.64
Gross Margin23.5%12.0%-49.4%9.2%
Operating Margin-517.6%-926.5%-633.7%-903.1%
Net Margin-450.3%3003.5%-3497.4%-1035.2%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 110.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 82/100Score impact: -16.6pt

Volume
100
2.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
90
$35M/day
Float
68
38M shares
Mkt Cap
35
$753M
Range
100
1440% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$35.25$94.5591.4%Wide
2022$6.00$40.35148.2%Wide
2023$2.33$10.50127.4%Wide
2024$2.20$7.25106.9%Wide
2025$2.52$38.80175.6%Wide
3-Year Range
178.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
64.0%
Outstanding Shares
60M
Bid-Ask Spread
1440.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.