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71

ROST

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Ross Stores, Inc.

Conservative #79Aggressive #133Low RiskMixed 41MLโ†‘ 30pt
$201.53+0.49%
Day High$204.85
Day Low$199.93
Volume1.9M
Mkt Cap$65.5B
52W Low $12252W High $205
Market Cap
$63.9B
P/E Ratio
30.7
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
3.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
11.5%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.03

Why This Score

ROST scores 71.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 37.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.03) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.6 points) applied. ROST's rank of #79 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score71.1
Fundamental Score63.5
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.0
6 Month
92.8
Primary
1 Year
97.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
68.7
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-1.6
Final
71.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth60
Stability60
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+10.6% to +16.7%
Medium-term
+15.8% to +24.9%
Long-term
+23.6% to +36.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.8/100
Target Upside+0.2%
Coverage47 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.82)
Relative Strength vs Sector+40.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.379
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P50
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P28
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 92th percentileP92
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (62.4) + 9% ML (92.1) + SHAP(+4.4) = 69.5โ€”
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.1%. Stability bonus of +9.9 points. Max drawdown 9% (-0.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($63.9B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.9pt (conviction=41)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -2.9pt (ML 30pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #6 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy47 analysts
Buy: 30Hold: 13Sell: 4
Price Target
$202consensus
Low $180Median $200High $221
+0.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brand names. Its stores primarily offer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions. The company's Ross Dress for Less stores sell its products at department and specialty stores primarily to middle income households; and dd's DISCOUNTS stores sell its products at department and discount stores for households with moderate income. As of July 5, 2022, it operated approximately 1,950 stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS name in 40 states, the District of Columbia, and Guam. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.

CEO
James G. Conroy
Employees
107,000
Beta
0.99
Industry
Apparel - Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
81.7
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.6%
High: $204.85
From 52W Low
+64.7%
Low: $122.36
Moving Averages
10-Day
$198.80
Above
20-Day
$194.30
Above
50-Day
$189.40
Above
200-Day
$159.10
Above
60-Day Support
$174.88
60-Day Resistance
$204.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 88/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+26.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.04%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.85x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$5.6B$5.5B$5.0B$5.9B
Gross Profit$1.6B$1.5B$1.4B$1.6B
Operating Income$648M$638M$606M$731M
Net Income$512M$508M$479M$587M
EPS (Diluted)$1.58$1.56$1.47$1.79
Gross Margin28.0%27.6%28.2%26.5%
Operating Margin11.6%11.5%12.2%12.4%
Net Margin9.1%9.2%9.6%9.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalEarnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 99/100Score impact: -5.4pt

Volume
100
2.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$539M/day
Float
100
316M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$63.9B
Range
93
66% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 12/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$103.62$134.2225.7%Moderate
2022$69.24$120.3953.9%Wide
2023$99.00$139.2233.8%Moderate
2024$127.53$163.6024.8%Narrow
2025$122.36$185.8541.2%Wide
3-Year Range
61%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.1%
Outstanding Shares
325M
Bid-Ask Spread
66.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.