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69

GTX

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Garrett Motion Inc.

Conservative #105Aggressive #269Low RiskHigh 100
$20.30+0.15%
Day High$20.48
Day Low$20.10
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$4.1B
52W Low $752W High $21
Market Cap
$3.8B
P/E Ratio
11.8
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
3.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
9.9%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

GTX scores 69.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.77) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (123%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (11.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. GTX's rank of #105 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score69.7
Fundamental Score69.6
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.4
6 Month
82.0
Primary
1 Year
86.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
65.7
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Final
69.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)55.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)95.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)51.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.8% to +11.1%
Medium-term
+9.6% to +17.7%
Long-term
+14.6% to +25.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-8.2%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+58.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.53)
Relative Strength vs Sector+122.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.204
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
28%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P46
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P71
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P72
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 85 relative to sector peers85/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (84.9) + 9% ML (85.0) + SHAP(+5.0) = 89.9
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.0%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.2pt (123% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-33.2%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #8 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
REYN62.716.60.7%8.1%$5.0B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold7 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 3Sell: 2
Price Target
$18consensus
Low $14Median $18High $21
-13.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Garrett Motion Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells turbocharger and electric-boosting technologies for light and commercial vehicle original equipment manufacturers worldwide. The company offers light vehicle gasoline and diesel, and commercial vehicle turbochargers; and provides automotive software solutions. It offers its products in the aftermarket through distributors. Garrett Motion Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Rolle, Switzerland.

CEO
Olivier Rabiller
Employees
6,600
Beta
0.32
Industry
Auto - Parts
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
62.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.2%
High: $21.42
From 52W Low
+189.2%
Low: $7.02
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.20
Above
20-Day
$19.40
Above
50-Day
$18.50
Above
200-Day
$14.50
Above
60-Day Support
$16.26
60-Day Resistance
$21.42
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+40%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.74%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.3x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$891M$902M$913M$878M
Gross Profit$213M$220M$226M$219M
Operating Income$115M$133M$123M$130M
Net Income$84M$77M$87M$62M
EPS (Diluted)$0.43$0.38$0.42$0.30
Gross Margin23.9%24.4%24.8%24.9%
Operating Margin12.9%14.7%13.5%14.8%
Net Margin9.4%8.5%9.5%7.1%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 11.8Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.8)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -4.1pt

Volume
100
2.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
97
$45M/day
Float
100
148M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$3.8B
Range
100
205% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$4.50$8.9065.7%Wide
2022$5.57$8.4340.9%Wide
2023$6.43$9.7541%Wide
2024$7.13$10.1635%Wide
2025$7.02$17.9187.4%Wide
3-Year Range
94.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
73.5%
Outstanding Shares
202M
Bid-Ask Spread
205.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.