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37

VERA

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Vera Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #925Aggressive #349Moderate RiskMixed 42Fโ†‘ 29pt
$41.68-1.63%
Day High$44.26
Day Low$41.60
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$2.9B
52W Low $1952W High $56
Market Cap
$2.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-58.5%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.19

Why This Score

VERA scores 37.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (98/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (21.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, VERA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score37.4
Fundamental Score33.3
ML Score98.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
12.6
6 Month
14.1
Primary
1 Year
14.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
86
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
46.2
SHAP
-0.4
Factors
-0.2
Conviction
-0.8
Divergence
-7.5
Final
37.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-13.1% to -6.6%
Medium-term
-17.4% to -8.1%
Long-term
-21.7% to -9.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 98

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.2/100
Target Upside+86.1%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score85.9/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+1.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-54.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.43)
Relative Strength vs Sector+16.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality+0.324
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P28
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -0.4pt (features diverge from model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (58.2) + 9% ML (27.4) + SHAP(-0.4) = 55.0โ€”
Factor quality: -0.2pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 21.3%. Max drawdown 21% (-5.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.9B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.8pt (conviction=42)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -2.9pt (fund 29pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $2.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #149 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VERA37.4N/A0.0%0.0%$2.9B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 11Hold: 2
Price Target
$78consensus
Low $33Median $90High $97
+86.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vera Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for patients with serious immunological diseases in the United States. Its lead product candidate is atacicept, a fusion protein self-administered as a subcutaneous injection that is in Phase IIb clinical trial for patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy. It is also developing MAU868, a monoclonal antibody for the treatment of BK viremia infections and is under Phase 2 clinical trial. The company was formerly known as Trucode Gene Repair, Inc. and changed its name to Vera Therapeutics, Inc. in April 2020. Vera Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.

CEO
Marshall W. Fordyce
Employees
152
Beta
1.15
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-25.6%
High: $56.05
From 52W Low
+124.9%
Low: $18.53
Moving Averages
10-Day
$42.40
Below
20-Day
$43.10
Below
50-Day
$46.70
Below
200-Day
$31.10
Above
60-Day Support
$32.66
60-Day Resistance
$56.05
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+34%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+24.14%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.84x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
73
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-564,000$-563,000$0$0
Operating Income$-84M$-80M$-57M$-49M
Net Income$-80M$-77M$-52M$-43M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.26$-1.20$-0.81$-0.85
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 90/100Score impact: -36.7pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$57M/day
Float
80
50M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.9B
Range
100
202% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.30$37.11106.6%Wide
2022$12.29$29.2081.5%Wide
2023$5.20$20.23118.2%Wide
2024$14.20$51.61113.7%Wide
2025$18.53$56.05100.6%Wide
3-Year Range
166%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
70.7%
Outstanding Shares
70M
Bid-Ask Spread
202.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.