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RIOT

🏦 Financial Services

Riot Platforms, Inc.

Conservative #808Aggressive #6Moderate RiskHigh 100
$17.08+3.52%
Day High$17.41
Day Low$16.73
Volume17.5M
Mkt Cap$6.4B
52W Low $652W High $24
Market Cap
$5.7B
P/E Ratio
29.3
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
34.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
321.1%
Profit Margin
29.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.20

Why This Score

RIOT scores 41.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 29.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (96/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -20.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, RIOT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score41.5
Fundamental Score47.8
ML Score96.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.0
6 Month
73.8
Primary
1 Year
77.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Speculative Classification
Crypto/BTC mining company — earnings are macro-trade dependent, not fundamental. Better suited as a tactical position sized around BTC conviction.
Conservative score reduced by 15 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
89
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
74
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
42.5
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+2.1
Divergence
-5.0
Final
41.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value55
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)74.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)70.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+9.2% to +15.0%
Medium-term
+14.1% to +22.9%
Long-term
+21.3% to +33.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 96

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.6/100
Target Upside+79.7%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score89.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+53.4%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector+55.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality+0.410
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P88
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P18
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (73.0) + 9% ML (77.0) + SHAP(+2.4) = 75.7
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.3%. Max drawdown 36% (-11.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.7B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: RIOT has ~88% correlation with Bitcoin. Revenue and earnings are primarily driven by Bitcoin price, not operational improvement. Score reflects Bitcoin momentum, not company-specific alpha.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #230 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RIOT41.529.334.2%29.0%$5.7B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy18 analysts
Buy: 17Hold: 1
Price Target
$28consensus
Low $25Median $28High $31
+63.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Riot Platforms, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a Bitcoin mining company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Bitcoin Mining and Engineering. It offers comprehensive and critical infrastructure for institutional-scale Bitcoin mining facilities in Rockdale and Navarro counties, Texas; and two Bitcoin mining sites in Paducah, Kentucky. The company also designs and manufactures power distribution equipment and custom engineered electrical products; and electricity distribution product design, manufacturing, and installation services for large-scale commercial and governmental customers, as well as data center, power generation, utility, water, industrial, and alternative energy markets. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Castle Rock, Colorado.

CEO
Jason Les
Employees
783
Beta
3.59
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-28.7%
High: $23.94
From 52W Low
+175.9%
Low: $6.19
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.50
Above
20-Day
$15.30
Above
50-Day
$15.30
Above
200-Day
$14.50
Above
60-Day Support
$11.81
60-Day Resistance
$19.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 82/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+17.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.24%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.03x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$180M$153M$161M$143M
Gross Profit$71M$62M$66M$53M
Operating Income$80M$216M$-234M$188M
Net Income$104M$219M$-296M$136M
EPS (Diluted)$0.26$0.57$-0.90$0.43
Gross Margin39.3%40.5%40.8%37.5%
Operating Margin44.4%141.3%-144.9%132.0%
Net Margin58.0%143.4%-183.6%95.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 34.2%Profit margin 29.0%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -31.6pt

Volume
100
18.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$288M/day
Float
100
341M shares
Mkt Cap
70
$5.7B
Range
100
287% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$20.68$67.85106.6%Wide
2022$3.25$24.63153.4%Wide
2023$3.30$20.65144.9%Wide
2024$6.36$18.3697.1%Wide
2025$6.19$23.94117.8%Wide
3-Year Range
151.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
91.7%
Outstanding Shares
372M
Bid-Ask Spread
287.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.