Back to Dashboard
67

ONB

🏦 Financial Services

Old National Bancorp

Conservative #146Aggressive #181Low RiskLow 36ML↑ 32pt
$24.41+1.79%
Day High$24.52
Day Low$24.02
Volume1.9M
Mkt Cap$9.5B
52W Low $1752W High $26
Market Cap
$9.8B
P/E Ratio
14.6
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
25.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
24.1%
Profit Margin
18.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.88

Why This Score

ONB scores 67.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.6x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.

No material penalties applied. ONB ranks #146 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score67.1
Fundamental Score62.4
ML Score66.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.0
6 Month
79.4
Primary
1 Year
83.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
66.4
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-3.3
Final
67.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.6% to +5.1%
Medium-term
+1.9% to +8.7%
Long-term
+3.1% to +12.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 66

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside+13.8%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.73)
Relative Strength vs Sector-1.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality+0.063
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P83
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P41
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P54
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (52.4) + 9% ML (84.2) + SHAP(+5.0) = 60.3
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.4 points. Max drawdown 10% (-0.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($9.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.3pt (conviction=36)
Divergence penalty: -3.3pt (ML 32pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #43 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ONB67.114.625.5%18.0%$9.8B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits; and offers loans, such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. The company also provides debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access, online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services; cash management, private banking, brokerage, trust, investment advisory, and other traditional banking services; wealth management, investment, and foreign currency services; and treasury management, merchant, health savings, and capital markets services, as well as community development lending and equity investment solutions. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a total of 162 banking centers located primarily in the states of Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

CEO
James C. Ryan
Employees
4,028
Beta
0.83
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.7%
High: $26.17
From 52W Low
+45%
Low: $16.83
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.60
Below
20-Day
$24.90
Below
50-Day
$23.80
Above
200-Day
$22.20
Above
60-Day Support
$21.51
60-Day Resistance
$26.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 67/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.31%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
62
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.0B$1.0B$957M$724M
Gross Profit$691M$678M$540M$450M
Operating Income$304M$233M$156M$182M
Net Income$217M$183M$125M$145M
EPS (Diluted)$0.55$0.46$0.35$0.44
Gross Margin68.6%66.4%56.4%62.1%
Operating Margin30.2%22.8%16.3%25.1%
Net Margin21.5%17.9%13.1%20.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.6Revenue growth 25.5%Profit margin 18.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: +1.8pt

Volume
100
2.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$70M/day
Float
100
344M shares
Mkt Cap
79
$9.8B
Range
88
55% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 3/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.53$21.2831.2%Moderate
2022$14.22$20.8137.6%Wide
2023$11.66$18.8146.9%Wide
2024$15.36$23.7642.9%Wide
2025$16.83$24.4937.1%Wide
3-Year Range
71%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
88.0%
Outstanding Shares
391M
Bid-Ask Spread
55.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.