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14

CIFR

🏦 Financial Services

Cipher Mining Inc.

Conservative #1358Aggressive #814Moderate RiskModerate 68
$16.61-2.98%
Day High$17.82
Day Low$16.40
Volume30.3M
Mkt Cap$6.6B
52W Low $252W High $26
Market Cap
$6.5B
P/E Ratio
53.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
19.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-73.2%
Profit Margin
-29.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.08

Why This Score

CIFR scores 14.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.08) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (302%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Elevated valuation at 53.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (30.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -22.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CIFR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score14.4
Fundamental Score34.7
ML Score37.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
26.6
6 Month
29.8
Primary
1 Year
31.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Speculative Classification
Crypto/BTC mining company — earnings are macro-trade dependent, not fundamental. Better suited as a tactical position sized around BTC conviction.
Conservative score reduced by 15 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
90
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
13.2
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.1
Final
14.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

47AVG
Value40
Quality40
Growth35
Stability90
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)31.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.6% to -3.6%
Medium-term
-11.4% to -4.2%
Long-term
-14.2% to -4.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 37

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+74.0%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+3.0%
6M Momentum+1.1%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+187.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector+293.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+2.194
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P78
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P9
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P37
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 28 relative to sector peers28/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 40th percentileP40
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (28.5) + 9% ML (39.6) + SHAP(+1.1) = 30.6
Factor quality: +0.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 30.5%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.8 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (302% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CIFR has ~78% correlation with Bitcoin. Revenue and earnings are primarily driven by Bitcoin price, not operational improvement. Score reflects Bitcoin momentum, not company-specific alpha.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #323 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CIFR14.453.019.3%-29.5%$6.5B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 12
Price Target
$26consensus
Low $15Median $27High $38
+58.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Cipher Mining Inc., a technology company, operates in the bitcoin mining ecosystem in the United States. It engages in developing and growing a cryptocurrency mining business that specializes in bitcoin. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in New York, New York.

CEO
John Franceski
Employees
43
Beta
2.96
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34.9%
High: $25.52
From 52W Low
+793%
Low: $1.86
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.90
Above
20-Day
$16.00
Above
50-Day
$16.30
Above
200-Day
$11.80
Above
60-Day Support
$12.64
60-Day Resistance
$21.16
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+40.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+52.2%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$60M$72M$44M$49M
Gross Profit$-198M$31M$13M$20M
Operating Income$-51M$-38M$-45M$-38M
Net Income$-734M$-3M$-46M$-39M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.93$-0.01$-0.12$-0.11
Gross Margin-332.0%42.6%28.9%40.4%
Operating Margin-85.1%-52.5%-103.9%-77.8%
Net Margin-1229.6%-4.6%-105.1%-79.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 19.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -28.2pt

Volume
100
31.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$481M/day
Float
100
320M shares
Mkt Cap
70
$6.5B
Range
100
1272% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$4.35$15.39111.9%Wide
2022$0.38$4.72170.1%Wide
2023$0.58$5.60162.6%Wide
2024$2.15$7.99115.2%Wide
2025$1.86$25.52172.8%Wide
3-Year Range
191.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
81.0%
Outstanding Shares
395M
Bid-Ask Spread
1272.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.