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37

MARA

🏦 Financial Services

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #942Aggressive #105High RiskMixed 46
$8.57+6.46%
Day High$8.84
Day Low$8.16
Volume57.0M
Mkt Cap$3.2B
52W Low $752W High $23
Market Cap
$3.0B
P/E Ratio
3.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
69.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
107.2%
Profit Margin
100.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.71

Why This Score

MARA scores 36.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 20.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 100.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 3.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (98/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -21.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MARA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.8
Fundamental Score44.5
ML Score98.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
41.3
6 Month
46.2
Primary
1 Year
48.6

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (211.2%) — earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Crypto/BTC mining company — earnings are macro-trade dependent, not fundamental. Better suited as a tactical position sized around BTC conviction.
Conservative score reduced by 15 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
40.3
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.3
Conviction
-0.4
Divergence
-5.8
Final
36.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)89.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)25.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.9% to -1.3%
Medium-term
-8.4% to -1.7%
Long-term
-11.0% to -2.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 98

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.3/100
Target Upside+132.0%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.85)
Relative Strength vs Sector-52.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality-0.187
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P97
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P90
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P1
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+1.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (62.4) + 9% ML (50.5) + SHAP(+2.4) = 63.7
Factor quality: +0.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($3.0B market cap)-4.0 pts
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 15.7%. Max drawdown 57% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -43% (-7.6 pts)High
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (100.8%) exceeds operating margin (57.4%) by 43pp — likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (211.2%) — earnings quality concern; MARA has ~90% correlation with Bitcoin. Revenue and earnings are primarily driven by Bitcoin price, not operational improvement. Score reflects Bitcoin momentum, not company-specific alpha.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #255 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MARA36.83.269.4%100.8%$3.0B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy18 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 7
Price Target
$18consensus
Low $8Median $16High $30
+110.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. operates as a digital asset technology company that mines cryptocurrencies with a focus on the blockchain ecosystem and the generation of digital assets in United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 8,115 bitcoins, which included the 4,794 bitcoins held in the investment fund. The company was formerly known as Marathon Patent Group, Inc. and changed its name to Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. in February 2021. Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

CEO
Frederick G. Thiel
Employees
171
Beta
5.53
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-63.5%
High: $23.45
From 52W Low
+28.7%
Low: $6.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.80
Above
20-Day
$8.30
Above
50-Day
$9.50
Below
200-Day
$14.50
Below
60-Day Support
$6.66
60-Day Resistance
$12.87
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-40.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.89%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
75
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$252M$238M$214M$214M
Gross Profit$209M$197M$170M$-53M
Operating Income$48M$680M$-541M$341M
Net Income$123M$808M$-533M$529M
EPS (Diluted)$0.27$1.84$-1.55$1.25
Gross Margin82.9%82.5%79.7%-24.6%
Operating Margin18.9%285.0%-253.0%159.1%
Net Margin48.8%338.9%-249.3%246.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 3.2Revenue growth 69.4%Profit margin 100.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 3.2)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -20.4pt

Volume
100
42.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$335M/day
Float
100
372M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$3.0B
Range
100
252% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.32$83.45128%Wide
2022$3.11$35.48167.8%Wide
2023$3.28$31.30162.1%Wide
2024$13.17$34.0988.5%Wide
2025$8.95$23.4589.5%Wide
3-Year Range
164.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
378M
Bid-Ask Spread
252.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.