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55

XP

🏦 Financial Services

XP Inc.

Conservative #420Aggressive #552Moderate RiskModerate 67ML↑ 17pt
$22.34-0.49%
Day High$22.88
Day Low$22.06
Volume4.3M
Mkt Cap$11.8B
52W Low $1252W High $23
Market Cap
$12.1B
P/E Ratio
12.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-10.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
14.5%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.89

Why This Score

XP scores 55.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 22.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 28.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 12.0x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (12.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-0.6 points) applied. XP's rank of #420 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.2
Fundamental Score51.5
ML Score53.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.2
6 Month
85.2
Primary
1 Year
89.7

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
52.1
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-0.9
Final
55.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.2% to +5.7%
Medium-term
+2.2% to +9.0%
Long-term
+3.4% to +12.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 53

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.4/100
Target Upside+7.8%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+31.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.25)
Relative Strength vs Sector+33.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.3)
Momentum Quality+0.334
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
46%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P57
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (62.6) + 9% ML (79.1) + SHAP(+3.7) = 67.8
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.6%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($12.1B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 17pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 11pp gap between net and operating margin; High accrual ratio (-132.5%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #128 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
XP55.212.0-10.6%28.3%$12.1B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Company Overviewvia FMP

XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. It offers securities brokerage, private pension plans, commercial, and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits; product structuring and capital markets services for corporate clients and issuers of fixed income products; advisory services for mass-affluent and institutional clients; and wealth management services for high-net-worth customers and institutional clients. The company also offers Xpeed, an online financial education portal that offers seminars, classes, and learning tools to help teach individuals on topics, such as basics of investing, techniques, and investment strategies, as well as insurance brokerage services. In addition, it operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market, including equity and fixed income securities, mutual and hedge funds, private equity, structured products, credit cards, loan operations, life insurance, pension plans, real-estate investment funds, and others. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil.

CEO
Thiago Maffra
Employees
6,834
Beta
1.23
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.4%
High: $23.13
From 52W Low
+83.1%
Low: $12.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$21.10
Above
20-Day
$20.40
Above
50-Day
$18.50
Above
200-Day
$18.30
Above
60-Day Support
$15.63
60-Day Resistance
$23.13
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+22.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.83%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
26
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$5.1B$4.6B$4.4B$4.3B
Gross Profit$3.4B$3.1B$3.0B$2.9B
Operating Income$1.7B$1.4B$1.4B$1.4B
Net Income$1.3B$1.3B$1.3B$1.2B
EPS (Diluted)$2.49$2.47$2.46$2.29
Gross Margin67.4%67.1%67.5%67.4%
Operating Margin33.0%31.0%32.7%32.9%
Net Margin26.0%28.1%29.1%28.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.0Profit margin 28.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -11.4pt

Volume
100
7.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$152M/day
Float
100
415M shares
Mkt Cap
81
$12.1B
Range
100
90% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.65$53.0863%Wide
2022$13.77$36.3690.1%Wide
2023$10.30$27.7191.6%Wide
2024$11.68$26.7878.5%Wide
2025$10.82$20.6462.4%Wide
3-Year Range
91.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
78.7%
Outstanding Shares
527M
Bid-Ask Spread
90.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.