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PTGX

🏥 Healthcare

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #547Aggressive #779Low RiskHigh 89
$87.10-0.33%
Day High$88.46
Day Low$86.25
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$5.4B
52W Low $3452W High $97
Market Cap
$5.2B
P/E Ratio
115.0
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
624.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
448.5%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

PTGX scores 50.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 21.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (89/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (117%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 115.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, PTGX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.7
Fundamental Score69.8
ML Score6.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.4
6 Month
64.2
Primary
1 Year
67.6

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
79
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
74
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
54.0
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.3
Divergence
-7.3
Final
50.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)90.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.2% to +5.8%
Medium-term
+2.7% to +9.8%
Long-term
+4.3% to +13.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 6

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.9/100
Target Upside+31.6%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score78.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+78.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+92.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.057
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P97
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P4
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P65
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (72.7) + 9% ML (67.0) + SHAP(+3.7) = 75.9
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 10.7%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.6 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.8pt (117% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.3pt (conviction=89)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -12 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 13pp gap between net and operating margin; High accrual ratio (-42.6%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 2.2% (original: 2.8%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #73 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PTGX50.7115.0624.1%21.9%$5.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy23 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 1
Price Target
$112consensus
Low $108Median $111High $117
+28.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops peptide-based therapeutic drugs to address hematology and blood disorders, and inflammatory and immunomodulatory diseases. It is developing rusfertide (PTG-300), an injectable hepcidin mimetic that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera and hereditary hemochromatosis, as well as for the treatment of other blood disorders; PN-943, an oral, alpha-4-beta-7 integrin- specific antagonist peptide that is in Phase II clinical trials for treating inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); and PN-235, an orally delivered interleukin-23 receptor specific antagonist for the treatment of IBD and non-IBD indications. The company has a license and collaboration agreement with Janssen Biotech, Inc. Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newark, California.

CEO
Dinesh V. Patel
Employees
124
Beta
2.25
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
60.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-9.8%
High: $96.54
From 52W Low
+158.5%
Low: $33.7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$83.90
Above
20-Day
$83.30
Above
50-Day
$84.70
Above
200-Day
$68.60
Above
60-Day Support
$77
60-Day Resistance
$96.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 88/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+27%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.43%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.6x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$5M$6M$28M$171M
Gross Profit$5M$6M$28M$171M
Operating Income$-46M$-42M$-19M$127M
Net Income$-39M$-35M$-12M$132M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.62$-0.55$-0.19$1.98
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-985.2%-758.0%-68.2%74.3%
Net Margin-834.9%-627.0%-41.2%77.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 624.1%Profit margin 21.9%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -5.0pt

Volume
93
827K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$72M/day
Float
80
51M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.2B
Range
100
186% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.80$50.54119.2%Wide
2022$6.91$37.04137.1%Wide
2023$10.62$30.1095.7%Wide
2024$21.43$48.8978.1%Wide
2025$33.70$96.5496.5%Wide
3-Year Range
160.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
81.0%
Outstanding Shares
63M
Bid-Ask Spread
186.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.