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58

OSBC

🏦 Financial Services

Old Second Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #340Aggressive #682Low RiskLow 26ML↑ 37pt
$20.32+2.68%
Day High$20.38
Day Low$19.86
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $1452W High $22
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
13.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
18.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-5.8%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

OSBC scores 58.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 20.2%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 13.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.7% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (14%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.2
Fundamental Score67.1
ML Score38.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.6
6 Month
82.3
Primary
1 Year
86.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
55
Grade C
Base
56.3
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-2.1
Final
58.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.7% to +6.3%
Medium-term
+3.5% to +10.6%
Long-term
+5.3% to +14.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 38

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.8/100
Target Upside+17.4%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.89)
Relative Strength vs Sector+5.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.4)
Momentum Quality+0.129
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P77
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P47
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (50.9) + 9% ML (87.8) + SHAP(+4.4) = 58.6—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.7%. Stability bonus of +10.6 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.3pt (conviction=26)—
Divergence penalty: -4.1pt (ML 37pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #103 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OSBC58.213.518.1%20.2%$1.1B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services. It provides demand, NOW, money market, savings, time deposit, individual retirement, and checking accounts, as well as certificate of deposit accounts. The company also offers commercial loans; lease financing receivables; commercial real estate loans; construction loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first mortgage and second mortgage loans; home equity line of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans; installment and agricultural loans; residential mortgages; and overdraft checking. Further, it provides safe deposit services; trust and wealth management services; and money orders, cashier's checks, foreign currency, direct deposits, discount brokerage, debit and credit cards, and other services, as well as acquires the U.S. treasury notes and bonds. In addition, the company offers online and mobile banking; corporate cash management products, including remote and mobile deposits capture, investment sweep accounts, zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, automatic teller machines access, telephone banking, lockbox accounts, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, detail and general information reporting, foreign and domestic wire transfers, and vault services for currency and coin; and investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients. It operates through 63 banking centers in Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle, and Will counties in Illinois. Old Second Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.

CEO
James L. Eccher
Employees
877
Beta
0.79
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.6%
High: $22
From 52W Low
+43.7%
Low: $14.14
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.30
Above
20-Day
$20.40
Below
50-Day
$20.30
Above
200-Day
$18.50
Above
60-Day Support
$18.75
60-Day Resistance
$22
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 71/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.19%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.88x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
88
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$114M$115M$85M$82M
Gross Profit$95M$75M$71M$69M
Operating Income$42M$13M$29M$26M
Net Income$29M$10M$22M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$0.54$0.18$0.48$0.43
Gross Margin83.2%64.5%84.0%84.1%
Operating Margin36.9%11.3%34.5%31.8%
Net Margin25.2%8.5%25.8%24.1%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.5Revenue growth 18.1%Profit margin 20.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.5)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 55/100Score impact: +2.1pt

Volume
62
318K avg/day
Dollar Vol
52
$6M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.1B
Range
88
56% spread
Composite Liquidity Score55/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 11/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.16$14.4525.7%Moderate
2022$12.55$17.8034.6%Moderate
2023$10.79$17.7048.5%Wide
2024$13.00$19.3739.4%Wide
2025$14.14$20.9638.9%Wide
3-Year Range
64.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
56.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.