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BHRB

🏦 Financial Services

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.

Conservative #417Aggressive #502Low RiskHigh 84
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
8.8
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
23.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
228.5%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.63

Why This Score

BHRB scores 55.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 24.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 8.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (14%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (84/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BHRB would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.5
Fundamental Score70.2
ML Score53.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.9
6 Month
88.2
Primary
1 Year
92.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
35
Grade Dlow volume, low float
Base
51.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+0.9
Divergence
-0.3
Final
55.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)80.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.7% to +12.2%
Medium-term
+11.0% to +19.3%
Long-term
+16.9% to +28.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 53

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+8.7%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.71)
Relative Strength vs Sector+5.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality+0.134
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P79
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P54
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (72.9) + 9% ML (85.8) + SHAP(+4.3) = 78.4
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.9%. Stability bonus of +10.3 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.7pt (conviction=84)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (34.4%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #126 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BHRB55.58.823.7%24.1%$1.0B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for BHRB.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 8.8Revenue growth 23.7%Profit margin 24.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 8.8)

Tradability FilterGrade D — 35/100Score impact: -14.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
9
78K avg/day
Dollar Vol
50
$5M/day
Float
28
13M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.0B
Range
85
49% spread
Composite Liquidity Score35/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 5/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$45.63$83.1358.2%Wide
2022$45.30$84.0059.9%Wide
2023$42.91$85.0065.8%Wide
2024$46.00$75.3248.3%Wide
2025$47.57$70.5138.9%Wide
3-Year Range
65.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
88.2%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
49.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.