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66

TCBI

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.

Conservative #178Aggressive #256Low RiskLow 5MLโ†‘ 33pt
$99.47+2.81%
Day High$99.91
Day Low$96.84
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$4.5B
52W Low $5952W High $109
Market Cap
$4.8B
P/E Ratio
14.3
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
13.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
326.1%
Profit Margin
16.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.26

Why This Score

TCBI scores 65.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (6.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (31%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.1 points) applied. TCBI's rank of #178 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.6
Fundamental Score67.0
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.8
6 Month
93.6
Primary
1 Year
98.5

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
78
Grade B
Base
61.7
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-0.1
Final
65.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.7% to +21.4%
Medium-term
+21.4% to +31.4%
Long-term
+30.9% to +44.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.2/100
Target Upside+7.0%
Coverage39 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+21.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.280
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P42
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 96th percentileP96
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (62.9) + 9% ML (95.6) + SHAP(+4.3) = 70.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.0%. Stability bonus of +10.0 points. Max drawdown 9% (-0.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.3pt (conviction=5)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.4pt (ML 33pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (326%) massively exceeds revenue growth (13.5%) โ€” earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 24x โ€” earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-123.9%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #56 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TCBI65.614.313.5%16.5%$4.8B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold39 analysts
Buy: 10Hold: 24Sell: 5
Price Target
$105consensus
Low $96Median $105High $114
+5.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, is a full-service financial services firm that delivers customized solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual customers. The company offers commercial banking, consumer banking, investment banking, and wealth management services. It offers business deposit products and services, including commercial checking accounts, lockbox accounts, and cash concentration accounts, as well as information, wire transfer initiation, ACH initiation, account transfer, and service integration services; and consumer deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides commercial loans for general corporate purposes comprising financing working capital, internal growth, acquisitions, and business insurance premiums, as well as consumer loans; loans to exploration and production companies; mortgage finance loans; commercial real estate and residential homebuilder finance loans; first and second lien loans for the purpose of purchasing or constructing 1-4 family residential dwellings, as well as home equity revolving lines of credit and loans to purchase lots for future construction of 1-4 family residential dwellings; and real estate loans originated through a small business administration program, as well as equipment finance and leasing services, and letters of credit. In addition, it offers online and mobile banking, and debit and credit card services; escrow services; personal wealth management and trust services; and depositors American Airlines AAdvantage miles. It operates in Austin, Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio metropolitan areas of Texas. Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

CEO
Robert C. Holmes
Employees
1,818
Beta
0.65
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8.7%
High: $108.92
From 52W Low
+67.5%
Low: $59.37
Moving Averages
10-Day
$102.00
Below
20-Day
$102.60
Below
50-Day
$98.30
Above
200-Day
$87.10
Above
60-Day Support
$89.21
60-Day Resistance
$108.92
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+14.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.43%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
89
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$504M$529M$494M$472M
Gross Profit$327M$328M$292M$263M
Operating Income$143M$138M$102M$60M
Net Income$101M$105M$77M$47M
EPS (Diluted)$2.12$2.18$1.58$0.92
Gross Margin64.9%62.0%59.2%55.9%
Operating Margin28.4%26.0%20.7%12.8%
Net Margin20.0%19.9%15.7%10.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.3Revenue growth 13.5%Profit margin 16.5%Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.3)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 78/100Score impact: +5.6pt

Volume
75
449K avg/day
Dollar Vol
96
$44M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.8B
Range
100
83% spread
Composite Liquidity Score78/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$54.27$93.2652.9%Wide
2022$48.79$71.6037.9%Wide
2023$42.79$69.2747.3%Wide
2024$54.68$91.8050.7%Wide
2025$59.37$98.0749.2%Wide
3-Year Range
78.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
83.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.