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68

NWBI

🏦 Financial Services

Northwest Bancshares, Inc.

Conservative #128Aggressive #289Low RiskLow 37ML↑ 32pt
$13.12+1.55%
Day High$13.14
Day Low$12.95
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $1152W High $14
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
15.1
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
16.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
25.7%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.24

Why This Score

NWBI scores 68.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (4.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. NWBI's rank of #128 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score68.1
Fundamental Score67.9
ML Score59.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.7
6 Month
82.3
Primary
1 Year
86.7

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.16) with 14.4% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
50
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
65
Grade B
Base
67.3
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-3.2
Final
68.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.6% to +5.0%
Medium-term
+1.8% to +8.6%
Long-term
+3.0% to +12.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 59

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score55.4/100
Target Upside+12.3%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.68)
Relative Strength vs Sector+2.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.4)
Momentum Quality+0.106
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P76
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P36
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (56.3) + 9% ML (88.0) + SHAP(+4.3) = 63.5—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.8%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 8% (-0.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.9B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=37)—
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 32pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -15 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.16) with 14.4% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed; High accrual ratio (37.9%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #36 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NWBI68.115.116.3%14.4%$1.9B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold14 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 9Sell: 1
Price Target
$14consensus
Low $13Median $14High $15
+6.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. operates as the holding company for Northwest Bank, a state-chartered savings bank that provides personal and business banking solutions. The company accepts various deposits, including checking, savings, money market deposit, term certificate, and individual retirement accounts. It also offers loan products comprising one-to-four-family residential real estate loans and loans collateralized by multi-family residential and commercial real estate; commercial business loans; and consumer loans, including automobile loans, sales finance loans, unsecured personal loans, credit card loans, and loans secured by deposit accounts. The company also offers investment management and trust services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 170 community-banking locations in Pennsylvania, Western New York, Eastern Ohio, and Indiana. Northwest Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

CEO
Louis J. Torchio
Employees
1,996
Beta
0.66
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.6%
High: $13.62
From 52W Low
+20.8%
Low: $10.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.90
Above
20-Day
$13.00
Below
50-Day
$12.60
Above
200-Day
$12.40
Above
60-Day Support
$11.84
60-Day Resistance
$13.59
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 60/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.33%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
27
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$241M$226M$202M$209M
Gross Profit$174M$136M$141M$148M
Operating Income$61M$3M$44M$57M
Net Income$46M$3M$34M$43M
EPS (Diluted)$0.31$0.02$0.26$0.34
Gross Margin72.4%60.2%69.8%70.9%
Operating Margin25.2%1.5%21.9%27.1%
Net Margin19.0%1.4%16.7%20.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 15.1Revenue growth 16.3%Profit margin 14.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.1)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 65/100Score impact: +5.3pt

Volume
99
965K avg/day
Dollar Vol
64
$12M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
57
$1.9B
Range
27
27% spread
Composite Liquidity Score65/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 49/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.37$15.4822.3%Narrow
2022$12.04$15.3524.2%Narrow
2023$9.80$14.6439.6%Wide
2024$10.45$15.4238.4%Wide
2025$10.75$13.6223.6%Narrow
3-Year Range
44.6%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
27.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.