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CCB

🏦 Financial Services

Coastal Financial Corporation

Conservative #806Aggressive #1101Moderate RiskHigh 85
$81.49+1.47%
Day High$81.91
Day Low$81.45
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $7652W High $120
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
26.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
14.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
3.9%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

CCB scores 41.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (85/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score41.6
Fundamental Score51.4
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.4
6 Month
63.0
Primary
1 Year
66.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-442.2%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
45
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
40.1
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.2
Divergence
-2.5
Final
41.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.9% to +3.3%
Medium-term
-0.7% to +5.7%
Long-term
-0.5% to +8.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+105.3%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.57)
Relative Strength vs Sector-24.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality-0.113
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P75
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P20
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P91
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (58.5) + 9% ML (66.0) + SHAP(+3.0) = 62.2
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.8%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.7 pts). Price momentum -15% (-2.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.8pt (conviction=85)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-442.2%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #229 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CCB41.626.914.7%8.4%$1.3B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy5 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 3Hold: 1
Price Target
$155consensus
Low $155Median $155High $155
+90.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Coastal Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Coastal Community Bank that provides various banking products and services to small to medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals in the Puget Sound region in Washington. It accepts a range of deposit products, including demand and savings accounts, time deposits, and money market accounts. The company offers commercial and industrial loans, including term loans, small business administration loans, commercial lines of credit, working capital loans, equipment financing, borrowing base loans, and other loan products; owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied real estate loans, and multi-family residential loans; construction and land development loans; residential real estate loans; and consumer and other loans, including automobile, boat and recreational vehicle, and secured term loans, as well as overdraft protection. It also provides remote deposit capture, online and mobile banking, and direct and reciprocal deposit services, as well as debit cards. In addition, the company offers business accounts and cash management services, including business checking and savings accounts, and treasury services, as well as banking as a service (BaaS), a platform that allows broker dealers and digital financial service providers to offer their clients banking services. It operates 14 full-service banking locations. Coastal Financial Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Everett, Washington.

CEO
Eric Sprink
Employees
488
Beta
0.82
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-32.2%
High: $120.05
From 52W Low
+10.2%
Low: $73.9
Moving Averages
10-Day
$82.20
Below
20-Day
$86.50
Below
50-Day
$103.00
Below
200-Day
$102.70
Below
60-Day Support
$73.9
60-Day Resistance
$120.05
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 19/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-20.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+5.7%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.07x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
21
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$167M$141M$115M$134M
Gross Profit$90M$53M$52M$49M
Operating Income$17M$18M$14M$12M
Net Income$13M$14M$11M$10M
EPS (Diluted)$0.82$0.88$0.71$0.63
Gross Margin54.0%37.7%45.1%36.8%
Operating Margin10.3%12.7%12.5%8.8%
Net Margin7.6%9.7%9.6%7.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 14.7%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 45/100Score impact: -3.9pt

Volume
29
138K avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$10M/day
Float
27
13M shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.3B
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score45/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.37$54.4176.3%Wide
2022$35.61$54.5342%Wide
2023$29.91$48.5047.4%Wide
2024$35.67$87.1083.8%Wide
2025$76.11$120.0544.8%Wide
3-Year Range
120.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
86.3%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.