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41

PCVX

🏥 Healthcare

Vaxcyte, Inc.

Conservative #825Aggressive #405Moderate RiskLow 22F↑ 39pt
$63.04+2.75%
Day High$64.78
Day Low$57.38
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$9.0B
52W Low $2852W High $83
Market Cap
$8.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-15.3%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

PCVX scores 40.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (96/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (18.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -12.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, PCVX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.8
Fundamental Score38.2
ML Score96.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
15.0
6 Month
16.7
Primary
1 Year
17.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
50
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
49.8
SHAP
+0.2
Factors
-0.1
Conviction
-2.7
Divergence
-6.4
Final
40.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.6% to -3.0%
Medium-term
-11.7% to -3.6%
Long-term
-14.8% to -4.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 96

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+27.9%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-101.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.34)
Relative Strength vs Sector-50.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.211
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P29
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 71 relative to sector peers71/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 32th percentileP32
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (70.6) + 9% ML (29.8) + SHAP(+0.2) = 67.2—
Factor quality: -0.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 18.0%. Max drawdown 18% (-4.2 pts). Price momentum -26% (-4.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.7pt (conviction=22)—
Divergence penalty: -4.4pt (fund 39pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #129 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PCVX40.8N/A0.0%0.0%$8.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 11
Price Target
$83consensus
Low $77Median $83High $89
+31.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vaxcyte, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology vaccine company, develops novel protein vaccines to prevent or treat bacterial infectious diseases. Its lead vaccine candidate is VAX-24, a 24-valent investigational pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials to treat invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. The company also develops VAX-XP to protect against emerging strains and address antibiotic resistance; VAX-A1, a conjugate vaccine candidate designed to treat Group A Strep; and VAX-PG, a novel protein vaccine candidate targeting keystone pathogen responsible for periodontitis. The company was formerly known as SutroVax, Inc. and changed its name to Vaxcyte, Inc. in May 2020. Vaxcyte, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Carlos, California.

CEO
Grant E. Pickering
Employees
414
Beta
1.34
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
73.0
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.3%
High: $83.33
From 52W Low
+127.9%
Low: $27.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$57.40
Above
20-Day
$56.10
Above
50-Day
$50.70
Above
200-Day
$40.50
Above
60-Day Support
$42.4
60-Day Resistance
$65
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+55.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.85%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.85x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
72
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$5M$0$-5M$0
Operating Income$-274M$-242M$-226M$-181M
Net Income$-247M$-213M$-167M$-141M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.81$-1.56$-1.22$-1.04
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -20.9pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$84M/day
Float
100
120M shares
Mkt Cap
76
$8.3B
Range
100
201% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.51$28.3058.4%Wide
2022$16.78$48.1996.7%Wide
2023$34.11$64.0461%Wide
2024$53.83$121.0676.9%Wide
2025$27.66$93.77108.9%Wide
3-Year Range
125.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
84.8%
Outstanding Shares
142M
Bid-Ask Spread
201.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.