Back to Dashboard
42

ARWR

🏥 Healthcare

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #723Aggressive #870Moderate RiskHigh 88
$61.62-3.23%
Day High$64.53
Day Low$61.02
Volume1.8M
Mkt Cap$8.6B
52W Low $1052W High $77
Market Cap
$8.9B
P/E Ratio
44.0
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
23258.2%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
99.7%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.55

Why This Score

ARWR scores 44.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 36.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (88/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (237%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 44.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (22.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -13.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ARWR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.6
Fundamental Score66.0
ML Score7.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.8
6 Month
64.6
Primary
1 Year
68.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
47.2
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.2
Divergence
-6.6
Final
44.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)77.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.2% to +2.9%
Medium-term
-1.1% to +5.2%
Long-term
-1.1% to +7.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 7

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+2.4%
6M Momentum+1.9%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+47.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.80)
Relative Strength vs Sector+213.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+2.186
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P100
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P12
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P76
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (61.3) + 9% ML (67.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 65.6
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 22.3%Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (237% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.9B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.2pt (conviction=88)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-45.3%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 13.9% (original: 20.8%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #109 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ARWR44.644.023258.2%18.5%$8.9B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 6
Price Target
$79consensus
Low $35Median $80High $110
+27.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. The company's products in pipeline includes ARO-AAT, a RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutic candidate that is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of liver diseases associated with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency; ARO-APOC3, which is in phase 2b and one phase 3 clinical trial to treat hypertriglyceridemia; ARO-ANG3 that is in Phase 2b clinical trial to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3; ARO-HSD, which is in Phase 1/2a clinical trial to treat liver diseases; ARO-ENaC, which is in a Phase 1/2a clinical trial to reduce production of the epithelial sodium channel alpha subunit in the airways of the lung; ARO-C3 for the treatment of complement-mediated disease that is in Phase 1/2a clinical trial; ARO-Lung2 for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder; ARO-DUX4 for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy; ARO-XDH to treat uncontrolled gout; ARO-COV for the treatment of COVID-19 and other pulmonary-borne pathogens; and ARO-HIF2, which is in phase 1b clinical trial to treat clear cell renal cell carcinoma. It is also involved in the development of JNJ-3989, a subcutaneously administered RNAi therapeutic candidate to treat chronic hepatitis B virus infection; Olpasiran to reduce the production of apolipoprotein A; and ARO-AMG1 for treating genetically validated cardiovascular targets. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has a license and research collaboration agreement with Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop ARO-JNJ1, ARO-JNJ2, and ARO-JNJ3 RNAi therapeutics for liver-expressed targets; and license and research collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. to develop RNAi therapeutic candidate as a treatment for liver disease. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.

CEO
Christopher R. Anzalone
Employees
609
Beta
1.22
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
27.0
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.7%
High: $76.76
From 52W Low
+543.9%
Low: $9.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$63.20
Below
20-Day
$65.20
Below
50-Day
$66.30
Below
200-Day
$37.60
Above
60-Day Support
$52.08
60-Day Resistance
$76.76
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+63.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+68.33%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$264M$256M$28M$543M
Gross Profit$264M$256M$22M$543M
Operating Income$41M$44M$-166M$381M
Net Income$31M$-24M$-175M$370M
EPS (Diluted)$0.22$-0.17$-1.26$2.75
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%77.6%100.0%
Operating Margin15.5%17.2%-596.2%70.2%
Net Margin11.7%-9.3%-631.1%68.3%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 23258.2%Profit margin 18.5%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -3.5pt

Volume
100
3.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$206M/day
Float
100
122M shares
Mkt Cap
77
$8.9B
Range
100
702% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$57.92$93.6647.2%Wide
2022$26.81$70.0989.3%Wide
2023$20.67$42.4869.1%Wide
2024$17.05$39.8380.1%Wide
2025$9.57$72.36153.3%Wide
3-Year Range
153.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
87.1%
Outstanding Shares
140M
Bid-Ask Spread
702.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.