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28

MSBI

🏦 Financial Services

Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #1162Aggressive #1329Low RiskModerate 65ML↑ 17pt
$22.97-0.39%
Day High$22.99
Day Low$22.76
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$495M
52W Low $1452W High $25
Market Cap
$509M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-14.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-426.7%
Profit Margin
-27.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.76

Why This Score

MSBI scores 28.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (29%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-9.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score28.1
Fundamental Score38.5
ML Score21.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
46.5
6 Month
51.9
Primary
1 Year
54.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (288.7%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
43
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
25.9
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-0.4
Final
28.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)50.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.1% to +1.9%
Medium-term
-2.8% to +3.2%
Long-term
-3.6% to +4.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 21

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-0.6%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.93)
Relative Strength vs Sector+20.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality+0.235
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
81%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P8
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P92
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 38 relative to sector peers38/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 55th percentileP55
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (37.8) + 9% ML (53.6) + SHAP(+1.9) = 41.1—
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.7%. Max drawdown 19% (-4.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.0pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (288.7%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #291 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MSBI28.1N/A-14.4%-27.3%$509M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold4 analysts
Hold: 4
Price Target
$22consensus
Low $19Median $23High $26
-2.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates through Banking, Wealth Management, and Other segments. The company accepts various deposits, such as checking, savings, money market, and sweep accounts, as well as certificates of deposits. It also offers term loans to purchase capital equipment; lines of credit for working capital and operational purposes; commercial real estate loans for owner occupied and non-owner occupied commercial property, as well as farmland loans; construction and land development loans developers of commercial real estate investment properties, residential developments, individual clients for construction of single family homes, as well as to construct owner-user properties; and residential real estate loans and home equity lines of credit.. In addition, the company provides consumer installment loans for the purchase of cars, boats, and other recreational vehicles, as well as for the purchase of major appliances and other home improvement projects; commercial equipment leasing; and trust and wealth management products and services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.

CEO
Jeffrey G. Ludwig
Employees
907
Beta
0.61
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
41.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7%
High: $24.57
From 52W Low
+60.5%
Low: $14.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$23.00
Below
20-Day
$23.20
Below
50-Day
$22.50
Above
200-Day
$18.70
Above
60-Day Support
$16.17
60-Day Resistance
$24.57
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+22.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.49%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.63x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
59
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$107M$116M$118M$115M
Gross Profit$74M$58M$61M$63M
Operating Income$-3M$11M$15M$-138M
Net Income$-3M$8M$12M$-141M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.24$0.24$0.45$0.57
Gross Margin68.9%50.3%52.1%54.9%
Operating Margin-3.0%9.8%12.6%-119.8%
Net Margin-2.7%6.5%10.2%-122.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade C — 43/100Score impact: -14.1pt

Volume
48
195K avg/day
Dollar Vol
42
$4M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
28
$509M
Range
96
73% spread
Composite Liquidity Score43/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 14/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.50$30.3229.6%Moderate
2022$23.48$30.6026.3%Moderate
2023$17.98$28.4745.2%Wide
2024$20.54$28.1031.1%Moderate
2025$14.24$25.7657.6%Wide
3-Year Range
66.6%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
73.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.