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SFST

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Southern First Bancshares, Inc.

Conservative #538Aggressive #638Low RiskLow 6MLโ†‘ 47pt
$61.50+0.69%
Day High$62.09
Day Low$60.62
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$505M
52W Low $2952W High $62
Market Cap
$506M
P/E Ratio
16.1
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
5.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
95.5%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.72

Why This Score

SFST scores 50.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.3% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SFST would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.7
Fundamental Score65.5
ML Score48.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.6
6 Month
83.3
Primary
1 Year
87.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
21
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
47.1
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-0.4
Final
50.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)93.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.5% to +8.3%
Medium-term
+6.1% to +13.6%
Long-term
+8.8% to +18.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 48

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.6/100
Target Upside+7.3%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+41.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.41)
Relative Strength vs Sector+61.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.686
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P53
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P47
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P49
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 42 relative to sector peers42/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (42.1) + 9% ML (89.2) + SHAP(+4.3) = 50.7โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.3%. Stability bonus of +11.4 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.2pt (conviction=6)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -5.7pt (ML 47pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #162 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SFST50.716.15.3%13.5%$506M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Southern First Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Southern First Bank that provides various banking products and services to general public in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia. It operates through three segments: Commercial and Retail Banking, Mortgage Banking, and Corporate Operations. The company accepts various deposit products that include checking accounts, commercial checking accounts, and savings accounts, as well as other time deposits, including daily money market accounts and long-term certificates of deposit. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate loans; construction real estate loans; commercial business loans for various lines of businesses, such as the manufacturing, service industry, and professional service areas; consumer real estate and home equity loans; and other consumer loans, including secured and unsecured installment loans and revolving lines of credit. In addition, the company provides other bank services, such as internet banking, cash management, safe deposit boxes, direct deposit, automatic drafts, bill payment, and mobile banking services. It operates through eight retail offices located in Greenville, Charleston, and Columbia; three retail offices located in Raleigh, Greensboro, and Charlotte markets; and one retail office located in Atlanta. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Greenville, South Carolina.

CEO
R. Arthur Seaver Jr.
Employees
297
Beta
0.76
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.6%
High: $62.09
From 52W Low
+109.7%
Low: $29.14
Moving Averages
10-Day
$59.70
Above
20-Day
$58.70
Above
50-Day
$55.70
Above
200-Day
$46.00
Above
60-Day Support
$49.61
60-Day Resistance
$62.09
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+32.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+16.54%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$58M$59M$56M$53M
Gross Profit$31M$30M$28M$26M
Operating Income$13M$11M$9M$7M
Net Income$10M$9M$7M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$1.21$1.07$0.81$0.65
Gross Margin54.1%51.7%50.2%48.8%
Operating Margin22.2%19.3%15.4%13.1%
Net Margin17.1%14.8%11.8%10.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 16.1Profit margin 13.5%

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 21/100Score impact: -2.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
51K avg/day
Dollar Vol
25
$3M/day
Float
4
6M shares
Mkt Cap
29
$506M
Range
100
112% spread
Composite Liquidity Score21/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$43.51$65.5940.5%Wide
2022$41.05$65.3845.7%Wide
2023$20.75$45.9875.6%Wide
2024$24.98$45.9159%Wide
2025$29.14$56.7364.3%Wide
3-Year Range
92.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
76.9%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
112.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.