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49

PDLB

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Ponce Financial Group, Inc.

Conservative #599Aggressive #642Low RiskLow 16MLโ†‘ 42pt
$16.87+1.93%
Day High$16.88
Day Low$16.60
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$405M
52W Low $1152W High $18
Market Cap
$405M
P/E Ratio
13.3
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
16.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
161.6%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.21

Why This Score

PDLB scores 48.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 13.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.3% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (26%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.21) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -15.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, PDLB would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.5
Fundamental Score63.8
ML Score45.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
82.8
6 Month
92.6
Primary
1 Year
97.5

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
25
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
45.1
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-0.6
Final
48.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)62.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+12.6% to +19.0%
Medium-term
+18.4% to +27.9%
Long-term
+27.0% to +40.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 45

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.44)
Relative Strength vs Sector+17.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.248
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P76
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P59
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P80
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 94th percentileP94
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (52.2) + 9% ML (94.0) + SHAP(+4.3) = 60.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.3%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.3pt (conviction=16)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -4.8pt (ML 42pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -19 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (162%) far exceeds revenue growth (16.1%) โ€” margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-102.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #175 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PDLB48.513.316.1%14.8%$405M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ponce Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Ponce Bank that provides various banking products and services. It accepts various deposit products, including demand accounts, NOW/IOLA accounts, money market accounts, reciprocal deposits, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides one-to-four family investor-owned and owner-occupied residential, multifamily residential, nonresidential property, construction and land, commercial and industrial, business, and consumer loans; lines of credit; and paycheck protection program. In addition, it invests in securities, which consist of U.S. Government and federal agency securities and securities issued by government-sponsored or government-owned enterprises, as well as mortgage-backed securities, corporate bonds and obligations, and Federal Home Loan Bank stock. It operates 4 banking offices in Bronx, 2 banking offices in Manhattan, 3 banking offices in Queens, and 3 banking offices in Brooklyn, New York; 1 banking office in Union City, New Jersey; and 2 mortgage loan offices in Queens, 1 mortgage loan office in Brooklyn, New York; and 1 mortgage loan office in Englewood Cliffs and 1 mortgage loan office in Bergenfield, New Jersey. Ponce Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Bronx, New York.

CEO
Carlos Naudon
Employees
211
Beta
0.55
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.4%
High: $18.01
From 52W Low
+54.9%
Low: $10.88
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.60
Above
20-Day
$16.70
Above
50-Day
$16.60
Above
200-Day
$15.00
Above
60-Day Support
$15.29
60-Day Resistance
$18.01
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+12.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.59%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.74x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$52M$48M$48M$46M
Gross Profit$31M$25M$25M$24M
Operating Income$15M$9M$8M$8M
Net Income$10M$7M$6M$6M
EPS (Diluted)$0.42$0.27$0.25$0.25
Gross Margin60.1%52.5%51.6%53.2%
Operating Margin28.3%18.1%16.8%17.4%
Net Margin19.4%13.5%12.8%13.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.3Revenue growth 16.1%Profit margin 14.8%

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 25/100Score impact: -6.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
12
87K avg/day
Dollar Vol
5
$1M/day
Float
42
18M shares
Mkt Cap
19
$405M
Range
93
66% spread
Composite Liquidity Score25/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$10.11$15.7543.6%Wide
2022$9.04$15.5753.1%Wide
2023$6.51$10.1944.1%Wide
2024$7.89$13.4352%Wide
2025$10.88$18.0149.4%Wide
3-Year Range
93.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
73.1%
Outstanding Shares
24M
Bid-Ask Spread
66.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.