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52

OBT

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Orange County Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #559Aggressive #780Low RiskHigh 100
$33.73-0.52%
Day High$34.59
Day Low$33.57
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$451M
52W Low $2152W High $38
Market Cap
$468M
P/E Ratio
11.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
10.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
49.2%
Profit Margin
26.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

OBT scores 52.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 16.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 26.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OBT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.5
Fundamental Score74.4
ML Score70.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.7
6 Month
79.0
Primary
1 Year
83.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, low dollar volume
Base
48.5
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.5
Final
52.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.7% to +6.4%
Medium-term
+3.4% to +10.7%
Long-term
+5.2% to +15.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 70

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+6.6%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.82)
Relative Strength vs Sector+32.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.380
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
16%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P74
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P67
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (80.0) + 9% ML (83.8) + SHAP(+5.0) = 85.3โ€”
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.7%. Stability bonus of +8.6 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #172 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OBT52.511.210.5%26.3%$468M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy2 analysts
Buy: 2
Price Target
$36consensus
Low $36Median $36High $36
+6.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Orange County Bancorp, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services, and trust and wealth management services to small businesses, middle-market enterprises, local municipal governments, and affluent individuals. It accepts various deposit products, including interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing demand accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate construction loans, residential real estate loans, home equity loans, and consumer loans. In addition, it provides traditional trust and administration, asset management, financial planning, and wealth management services. The company operates 14 full-service branches and one loan production office in Orange, Westchester, Rockland, and Bronx counties in New York. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Middletown, New York.

CEO
Michael J. Gilfeather
Employees
225
Beta
0.44
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
46.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.2%
High: $37.99
From 52W Low
+60.9%
Low: $20.97
Moving Averages
10-Day
$34.50
Below
20-Day
$33.90
Below
50-Day
$31.10
Above
200-Day
$27.10
Above
60-Day Support
$26.8
60-Day Resistance
$37.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 69/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+24.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.6%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.29x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
68
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-18)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$40M$41M$41M$36M
Gross Profit$31M$30M$30M$28M
Operating Income$14M$13M$14M$11M
Net Income$12M$10M$10M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.93$0.75$0.87$0.77
Gross Margin78.7%72.3%74.8%76.6%
Operating Margin34.1%31.5%33.5%31.1%
Net Margin31.1%24.3%25.8%24.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.2Revenue growth 10.5%Profit margin 26.3%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.2)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -15.5pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
43K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$1M/day
Float
0
11M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$468M
Range
0
81% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.30$20.8637.3%Wide
2022$16.16$24.0039%Wide
2023$13.44$32.0181.7%Wide
2024$20.50$33.0646.9%Wide
2025$20.97$30.2536.2%Wide
3-Year Range
84.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
79.6%
Outstanding Shares
13M
Bid-Ask Spread
81.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.