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46

BWFG

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.

Conservative #660Aggressive #752Low RiskLow 34MLโ†‘ 25pt
$48.12+0.01%
Day High$48.32
Day Low$47.80
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$379M
52W Low $2652W High $52
Market Cap
$382M
P/E Ratio
10.7
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
6.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
260.3%
Profit Margin
16.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.60

Why This Score

BWFG scores 46.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 10.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.6% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BWFG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.5
Fundamental Score70.4
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.6
6 Month
93.5
Primary
1 Year
98.4

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, low dollar volume
Base
42.5
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Final
46.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)91.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+13.1% to +19.6%
Medium-term
+19.2% to +28.8%
Long-term
+28.0% to +41.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+41.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.29)
Relative Strength vs Sector+48.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.566
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
24%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P57
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 69 relative to sector peers69/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 94th percentileP94
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (69.1) + 9% ML (94.4) + SHAP(+5.0) = 76.3โ€”
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.6%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.5pt (conviction=34)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 25pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -28 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (260%) far exceeds revenue growth (6.1%) โ€” margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 42x โ€” earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-20.8%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #191 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BWFG46.510.76.1%16.9%$382M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Bankwell Bank that provides various banking services for individual and commercial customers. It offers various traditional depository products, including checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides first mortgage loans secured by one-to-four family owner occupied residential properties for personal use; home equity loans and home equity lines of credit secured by owner occupied one-to-four family residential properties; loans secured by commercial real estate, multi-family dwellings, and investor-owned one-to-four family dwellings; commercial construction loans for commercial development projects, including apartment buildings and condominiums, as well as office buildings, retail, and other income producing properties; land loans; commercial business loans secured by assignments of corporate assets and personal guarantees of the business owners; loans secured by savings or certificate accounts and automobiles; and unsecured personal loans and overdraft lines of credit. It operates branches in New Canaan, Stamford, Fairfield, Wilton, Westport, Darien, Norwalk, and Hamden, Connecticut. The company was formerly known as BNC Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. in September 2013. Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in New Canaan, Connecticut.

CEO
Christopher R. Gruseke
Employees
145
Beta
0.66
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.3%
High: $51.54
From 52W Low
+81.1%
Low: $26.39
Moving Averages
10-Day
$48.20
Below
20-Day
$48.80
Below
50-Day
$48.10
Below
200-Day
$42.70
Above
60-Day Support
$44.85
60-Day Resistance
$51.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 78/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.93%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.63x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$54M$53M$51M$50M
Gross Profit$30M$28M$26M$23M
Operating Income$14M$13M$12M$9M
Net Income$9M$10M$9M$7M
EPS (Diluted)$1.16$1.27$1.15$0.87
Gross Margin55.0%53.0%52.0%46.2%
Operating Margin26.4%25.4%23.3%17.9%
Net Margin16.9%19.0%17.9%13.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.7Profit margin 16.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 10.7)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -18.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
41K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$2M/day
Float
0
6M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$382M
Range
0
95% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.39$33.9932.9%Moderate
2022$27.76$36.8728.2%Moderate
2023$21.22$31.6139.3%Wide
2024$22.47$35.2544.3%Wide
2025$26.39$51.5464.5%Wide
3-Year Range
83.3%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
75.7%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
95.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.