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23

AGIO

🏥 Healthcare

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1256Aggressive #1256Moderate RiskLow 29F↑ 28pt
$29.96-1.41%
Day High$30.86
Day Low$29.79
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $2252W High $46
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
48.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-161.3%
Profit Margin
-764.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

AGIO scores 23.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AGIO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.4
Fundamental Score35.6
ML Score10.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
6.4
6 Month
7.1
Primary
1 Year
7.5

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
26.5
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-0.7
Conviction
-2.0
Divergence
-1.6
Final
23.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)41.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-25.1% to -17.2%
Medium-term
-34.8% to -23.4%
Long-term
-43.7% to -29.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 10

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.0/100
Target Upside+37.4%
Coverage29 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.82)
Relative Strength vs Sector-45.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.8)
Momentum Quality-0.134
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P83
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P7
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 22th percentileP22
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (50.6) + 9% ML (21.7) + SHAP(+1.2) = 49.2—
Factor quality: -0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.0%. Max drawdown 37% (-11.6 pts). Price momentum -21% (-3.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.7B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.0pt (conviction=29)—
Divergence penalty: -2.7pt (fund 28pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-764.0%) exceeds operating margin (-873.9%) by 110pp — likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $1.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #275 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AGIO23.4N/A48.0%-764.0%$1.7B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy29 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 7
Price Target
$42consensus
Low $25Median $40High $62
+38.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Brian Goff
Employees
486
Beta
0.91
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34.9%
High: $46
From 52W Low
+34.7%
Low: $22.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.80
Above
20-Day
$28.10
Above
50-Day
$27.60
Above
200-Day
$34.10
Below
60-Day Support
$24.16
60-Day Resistance
$31.02
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 20/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-12.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.52%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.74x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
66
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$20M$13M$12M$9M
Gross Profit$19M$11M$9M$8M
Operating Income$-122M$-117M$-127M$-107M
Net Income$-108M$-103M$-112M$-89M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.85$-1.78$-1.93$-1.55
Gross Margin96.9%87.0%76.2%87.6%
Operating Margin-608.9%-907.4%-1020.1%-1222.0%
Net Margin-541.1%-803.1%-899.4%-1023.3%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 48.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -8.7pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
92
$38M/day
Float
81
54M shares
Mkt Cap
55
$1.7B
Range
100
107% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
91.6%
Outstanding Shares
59M
Bid-Ask Spread
107.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.