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FFBC

🏦 Financial Services

First Financial Bancorp.

Conservative #140Aggressive #380Low RiskModerate 74
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
11.3
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
2.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
11.7%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.43

Why This Score

FFBC scores 67.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 20.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (15%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (74/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. FFBC ranks #140 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score67.6
Fundamental Score65.5
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.8
6 Month
89.2
Primary
1 Year
93.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
63.6
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Final
67.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.6% to +10.9%
Medium-term
+9.4% to +17.4%
Long-term
+14.2% to +25.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.6/100
Target Upside+1.7%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.89)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality+0.133
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
26%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P46
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P62
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P78
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (69.7) + 9% ML (82.5) + SHAP(+5.0) = 75.9
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.0%. Max drawdown 11% (-1.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-32.2%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #39 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FFBC67.611.32.7%20.3%$3.2B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for FFBC.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.3Profit margin 20.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -0.1pt

Volume
97
915K avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$26M/day
Float
99
98M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
84
49% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 17/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$21.25$26.6222.4%Narrow
2022$18.75$26.8335.5%Wide
2023$17.23$26.5342.5%Wide
2024$20.59$31.1840.9%Wide
2025$21.10$29.2132.2%Moderate
3-Year Range
57.6%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.5%
Outstanding Shares
105M
Bid-Ask Spread
49.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.