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63

FBNC

🏦 Financial Services

First Bancorp

Conservative #241Aggressive #523Low RiskMixed 55ML↑ 22pt
Market Cap
$2.6B
P/E Ratio
23.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
2.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
45.7%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

FBNC scores 63.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 20.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-4.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.1
Fundamental Score69.1
ML Score40.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.3
6 Month
71.9
Primary
1 Year
75.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
67
Grade B
Base
61.2
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-2.1
Final
63.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.0% to +5.5%
Medium-term
+2.5% to +9.4%
Long-term
+3.9% to +13.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 40

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.2/100
Target Upside+6.7%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+35.5%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.26)
Relative Strength vs Sector+39.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.429
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P24
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P46
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 75th percentileP75
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (52.6) + 9% ML (75.0) + SHAP(+5.0) = 59.6—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.7%. Stability bonus of +8.6 points. Max drawdown 11% (-1.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.6B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.8pt (ML 22pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-33.3%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #75 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FBNC63.123.22.3%20.4%$2.6B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for FBNC.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 23.2Profit margin 20.4%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 67/100Score impact: +4.2pt

Volume
54
242K avg/day
Dollar Vol
69
$14M/day
Float
71
41M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.6B
Range
100
82% spread
Composite Liquidity Score67/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 2/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$37.60$50.9230.1%Moderate
2022$32.90$49.0039.3%Wide
2023$26.00$43.4750.3%Wide
2024$29.53$50.3452.1%Wide
2025$34.50$56.4548.3%Wide
3-Year Range
73.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.0%
Outstanding Shares
41M
Bid-Ask Spread
82.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.