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65

BUSE

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

First Busey Corporation

Conservative #183Aggressive #187Low RiskLow 39MLโ†‘ 30pt
$25.89+1.61%
Day High$26.02
Day Low$25.22
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $1852W High $28
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
17.4
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
57.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
19.0%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.19

Why This Score

BUSE scores 65.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (16%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. BUSE's rank of #183 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.4
Fundamental Score62.8
ML Score66.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.9
6 Month
87.1
Primary
1 Year
91.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
59
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
71
Grade B
Base
64.5
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-3.1
Final
65.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.2% to +9.2%
Medium-term
+7.2% to +14.9%
Long-term
+10.5% to +20.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 66

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.1/100
Target Upside+14.6%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.4)
Momentum Quality+0.142
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P95
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P33
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P54
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.8ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 48 relative to sector peers48/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (48.3) + 9% ML (78.8) + SHAP(+5.0) = 56.1โ€”
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.4%. Stability bonus of +9.2 points. Max drawdown 9% (-0.6 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.1pt (conviction=39)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (ML 30pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-68.3%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #58 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BUSE65.417.457.6%13.0%$2.3B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold11 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 7
Price Target
$29consensus
Low $29Median $29High $29
+12.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, FirsTech, and Wealth Management. It offers customary types of demand and savings deposits; and commercial, agricultural, real estate construction, commercial and residential real estate, and consumer loans, as well as home equity lines of credit. The company also provides money transfer, safe deposit, IRA, and other fiduciary services through banking center, ATM and technology-based networks. In addition, it offers investment management, trust, estate advisory, and financial planning services, as well as business succession and employee retirement planning services; investment strategy consulting and fiduciary services; and security brokerage services. Further, the company provides asset management, philanthropic advisory, tax preparation, and professional farm management services; and commercial depository services, such as cash management services. Additionally, it offers payment technology solutions through its payment platform, such as walk-in payment processing for customers at retail pay agents; online bill payment solutions; customer service payments accepted over the telephone; mobile bill pay; direct debit services; electronic concentration of payments delivered to automated clearing house network; money management and credit card networks; and lockbox remittance processing to make payments by mail, as well as provides tools related to billing, reconciliation, bill reminders, and treasury services. The company has 46 banking centers in Illinois; 8 in Missouri; 3 in southwest Florida; and 1 in Indianapolis, Indiana. First Busey Corporation was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Champaign, Illinois.

CEO
Van A. Dukeman
Employees
1,965
Beta
0.76
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.4%
High: $27.65
From 52W Low
+40.7%
Low: $18.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$26.20
Below
20-Day
$26.10
Below
50-Day
$25.20
Above
200-Day
$23.80
Above
60-Day Support
$23.27
60-Day Resistance
$27.65
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 67/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+8.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.05%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
64
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$278M$286M$292M$188M
Gross Profit$198M$197M$192M$83M
Operating Income$77M$77M$65M$-33M
Net Income$61M$57M$47M$-30M
EPS (Diluted)$0.63$0.94$0.52$-0.44
Gross Margin71.2%69.1%65.8%43.9%
Operating Margin27.9%27.1%22.1%-17.4%
Net Margin21.9%20.0%16.2%-15.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 17.4Revenue growth 57.6%Profit margin 13.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.4)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 71/100Score impact: +1.4pt

Volume
82
558K avg/day
Dollar Vol
68
$14M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.3B
Range
85
50% spread
Composite Liquidity Score71/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 17/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$21.00$28.6030.6%Moderate
2022$21.66$29.7331.4%Moderate
2023$16.26$25.8045.4%Wide
2024$21.68$28.9728.8%Moderate
2025$18.40$25.6232.8%Moderate
3-Year Range
56.2%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
50.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.