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38

CSTL

🏥 Healthcare

Castle Biosciences, Inc.

Conservative #899Aggressive #493Moderate RiskHigh 94
$30.83+2.97%
Day High$31.11
Day Low$29.93
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$900M
52W Low $1552W High $44
Market Cap
$853M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
51.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
131.7%
Profit Margin
-3.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.08

Why This Score

CSTL scores 38.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.08) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (94/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (26.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.5
Fundamental Score42.1
ML Score29.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
67.8
6 Month
75.8
Primary
1 Year
79.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (604.9%) — earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
90
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
64
Grade B
Base
34.5
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.9
Final
38.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.1% to +9.2%
Medium-term
+7.0% to +14.8%
Long-term
+10.2% to +20.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 29

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+74.5%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.72)
Relative Strength vs Sector+28.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.0)
Momentum Quality+0.393
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P72
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (71.5) + 9% ML (77.3) + SHAP(+1.8) = 73.8
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 26.5%. Max drawdown 26% (-7.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.9pt (conviction=94)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (604.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #143 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CSTL38.5N/A51.1%-3.6%$853M
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 11
Price Target
$50consensus
Low $47Median $50High $52
+61.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Castle Biosciences, Inc., a commercial-stage diagnostics company, focuses to provide diagnostic and prognostic testing services for dermatological cancers. Its lead product is DecisionDx-Melanoma, a multi-gene expression profile (GEP) test to identify the risk of metastasis for patients diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma. The company also offers DecisionDx-UM test, a proprietary GEP test that predicts the risk of metastasis for patients with uveal melanoma, a rare eye cancer; DecisionDx-SCC, a proprietary 40-gene expression profile test that uses an individual patient's tumor biology to predict individual risk of squamous cell carcinoma metastasis for patients with one or more risk factors; and DecisionDx DiffDx-Melanoma and myPath Melanoma, a proprietary GEP test to diagnose suspicious pigmented lesions. It offers test services through physicians and their patients. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Friendswood, Texas.

CEO
Derek J. Maetzold
Employees
784
Beta
1.05
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
33.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-30.4%
High: $44.28
From 52W Low
+111.3%
Low: $14.59
Moving Averages
10-Day
$31.50
Below
20-Day
$33.80
Below
50-Day
$37.60
Below
200-Day
$26.70
Above
60-Day Support
$27.8
60-Day Resistance
$44.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+22.97%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.08x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$83M$86M$88M$86M
Gross Profit$64M$69M$72M$70M
Operating Income$-7M$-4M$-28M$4M
Net Income$-501,000$5M$-26M$10M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.02$0.15$-0.90$0.32
Gross Margin77.5%79.5%81.4%81.3%
Operating Margin-8.2%-4.9%-31.7%4.7%
Net Margin-0.6%5.2%-29.4%11.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 51.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 64/100Score impact: -25.9pt

Volume
69
394K avg/day
Dollar Vol
63
$11M/day
Float
58
28M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$853M
Range
100
203% spread
Composite Liquidity Score64/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$37.99$89.0980.4%Wide
2022$15.58$48.40102.6%Wide
2023$9.26$29.59104.7%Wide
2024$16.97$35.8471.5%Wide
2025$14.59$42.1897.2%Wide
3-Year Range
128%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.3%
Outstanding Shares
29M
Bid-Ask Spread
203.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.