Back to Dashboard
59

CDNA

🏥 Healthcare

CareDx, Inc

Conservative #327Aggressive #174Moderate RiskHigh 96
$18.46-4.10%
Day High$18.81
Day Low$17.05
Volume1.4M
Mkt Cap$949M
52W Low $1152W High $23
Market Cap
$967M
P/E Ratio
16.2
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
19.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
127.6%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.09

Why This Score

CDNA scores 58.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 17.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.09) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (96/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (15.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. CDNA's rank of #327 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.9
Fundamental Score55.4
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.5
6 Month
81.0
Primary
1 Year
85.3

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
54.9
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.8
Final
58.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)74.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.1% to +8.0%
Medium-term
+5.2% to +12.7%
Long-term
+8.0% to +18.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.2/100
Target Upside+18.4%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-55.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.26)
Relative Strength vs Sector-35.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality-0.072
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P67
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P30
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P76
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (79.6) + 9% ML (86.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 82.6
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.0%. Max drawdown 37% (-11.7 pts). Price momentum -11% (-1.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.1pt (conviction=96)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (128%) far exceeds revenue growth (19.1%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (30.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #44 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CDNA58.916.219.1%17.0%$967M
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Buy: 10Hold: 3
Price Target
$23consensus
Low $18Median $26High $26
+26.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
John Walter Hanna Jr.
Employees
644
Beta
2.51
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.6%
High: $22.95
From 52W Low
+68.4%
Low: $10.96
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.30
Below
20-Day
$19.70
Below
50-Day
$19.70
Below
200-Day
$16.70
Above
60-Day Support
$16.94
60-Day Resistance
$21.49
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 28/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.91%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
64
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$108M$100M$87M$85M
Gross Profit$0$69M$58M$56M
Operating Income$-8M$2M$-11M$-13M
Net Income$-4M$2M$-9M$-10M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.08$0.03$-0.16$-0.19
Gross Margin0.0%68.7%66.9%66.4%
Operating Margin-7.7%2.0%-12.8%-15.8%
Net Margin-3.8%1.7%-9.9%-12.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 16.2Revenue growth 19.1%Profit margin 17.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 16.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 75/100Score impact: -4.9pt

Volume
89
727K avg/day
Dollar Vol
67
$14M/day
Float
80
50M shares
Mkt Cap
39
$967M
Range
100
109% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$39.16$96.8884.9%Wide
2022$10.68$47.82127%Wide
2023$4.80$18.04115.9%Wide
2024$7.42$34.84129.8%Wide
2025$10.96$25.9581.2%Wide
3-Year Range
151.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.1%
Outstanding Shares
51M
Bid-Ask Spread
109.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.