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22

FRHC

🏦 Financial Services

Freedom Holding Corp.

Conservative #1281Aggressive #1378Moderate RiskModerate 71
$119.47+0.81%
Day High$121.00
Day Low$117.71
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$7.3B
52W Low $10852W High $194
Market Cap
$7.1B
P/E Ratio
5820.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
22.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-77.5%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.61

Why This Score

FRHC scores 22.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (71/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 5820.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.61) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-7.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score22.0
Fundamental Score32.7
ML Score2.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
49.8
6 Month
55.7
Primary
1 Year
58.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
23
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
50
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
21.6
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-2.4
Final
22.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

43AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth35
Stability45
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)28.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)40.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)43.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.4% to -0.0%
Medium-term
-6.5% to +0.0%
Long-term
-8.6% to +0.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 2

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-48.5%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score23.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.65)
Relative Strength vs Sector-29.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality-0.131
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P81
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P94
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 59th percentileP59
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (44.2) + 9% ML (58.7) + SHAP(+1.8) = 47.3
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.2%. Max drawdown 37% (-11.7 pts). Price momentum -21% (-3.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.6x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #310 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FRHC22.05820.022.7%4.2%$7.1B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Price Target
$59consensus
Low $59Median $59High $59
-50.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Freedom Holding Corp., through its subsidiaries, provides retail securities brokerage, research, investment counseling, securities trading, market making, retail banking, corporate investment banking, and underwriting services. The company offers investment brokerage services for exchange-traded and over-the-counter corporate equity and debt securities, money market instruments, exchange traded options and futures contracts, government bonds, and mutual funds; margin lending services collateralized by securities and cash in the customer's account; various investment education and training courses; investment research services; and commercial banking services, including payment cards, digital mortgages, and digital auto loans, as well as insurance products. It also provides capital raising solutions for corporate clients through initial public offerings and follow-on offerings; and debt capital markets solutions that focuses on structuring and distributing private and public debt for various purposes, including buyouts, acquisitions, growth capital financings, and recapitalizations. In addition, the company is involved in trading, investment, and brokerage activities. Further, it facilitates repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements in proprietary trading activities; and covers short positions and settle other securities obligations to accommodate customers' needs and finance its inventory positions. Additionally, the company offers Tradernet software platform for client margin risk evaluation and middle office security transfer requests. It operates in Central Asia, Europe, the United States, Russia, and the Middle East/Caucasus. The company was formerly known as BMB Munai, Inc. and changed its name to Freedom Holding Corp. Freedom Holding Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

CEO
Timur Ruslanovich Turlov
Employees
7,761
Beta
0.83
Industry
Financial - Capital Markets
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-38.4%
High: $194.01
From 52W Low
+10.6%
Low: $107.98
Moving Averages
10-Day
$116.50
Above
20-Day
$119.40
Above
50-Day
$125.70
Below
200-Day
$150.80
Below
60-Day Support
$107.98
60-Day Resistance
$138.63
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 16/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-20.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.17%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.12x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$553M$531M$525M$446M
Gross Profit$399M$279M$253M$167M
Operating Income$154M$160M$145M$-15M
Net Income$76M$39M$30M$-143M
EPS (Diluted)$1.25$0.63$0.50$-2.34
Gross Margin72.2%52.5%48.1%37.4%
Operating Margin27.9%30.1%27.7%-3.3%
Net Margin13.8%7.3%5.8%-32.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 22.7%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 50/100Score impact: -7.8pt

Volume
16
98K avg/day
Dollar Vol
63
$11M/day
Float
44
18M shares
Mkt Cap
73
$7.1B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score50/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
29.6%
Outstanding Shares
61M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.