Back to Dashboard
56

MORN

🏦 Financial Services

Morningstar, Inc.

Conservative #395Aggressive #437Moderate RiskModerate 68ML↑ 16pt
$172.41+5.81%
Day High$173.10
Day Low$161.66
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$7.1B
52W Low $14952W High $326
Market Cap
$6.7B
P/E Ratio
18.0
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
7.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
1.2%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.03

Why This Score

MORN scores 56.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 30.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.03) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.5 points) applied. MORN's rank of #395 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.3
Fundamental Score48.5
ML Score80.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.0
6 Month
73.8
Primary
1 Year
77.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
50
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
54.8
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-2.5
Final
56.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value70
Quality85
Growth60
Stability60
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)30.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.6% to +2.5%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +4.3%
Long-term
-2.2% to +6.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 80

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+50.2%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.80)
Relative Strength vs Sector-57.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.249
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P60
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P31
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P81
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.2) + 9% ML (77.2) + SHAP(+3.1) = 65.8—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.4%. Max drawdown 49% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -49% (-8.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.7B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #117 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MORN56.318.07.5%15.3%$6.7B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold6 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 4
Price Target
$237consensus
Low $193Median $237High $280
+37.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Morningstar, Inc. provides independent investment research services in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offers web-based tools; investment data, fundamental equity and manager research, private capital markets research, credit and fund rating, and index, as well as environmental, social, and governance (ESG) rating services; and investment offerings, including managed investment products, publicly listed and private companies, fixed income securities, and real-time global market data for financial advisors, asset managers, retirement plan providers and sponsors, and individual and institutional investors. It also provides Morningstar Data, an investment data spanning various databases, including equity fundamentals, managed investments, ESG factors, and market data; Morningstar Direct, an investment-analysis platform; Morningstar Managed Portfolios, an advisor service consisting of model portfolio that offers services for independent financial advisors, as well as offers asset allocation services for asset managers, broker/dealers, and insurance providers; Morningstar Advisor Workstation, a web-based research, financial planning, and proposal generation platform; and Morningstar.com, a website for individual investors. In addition, the company offers Morningstar Enterprise Components; Morningstar Credit Ratings that provides issuance and surveillance services for structured finance products and instruments; corporate credit estimates and operational risk assessment rankings; Morningstar Indexes for creating investment products; Morningstar workplace solutions, such as retirement accounts, fiduciary services, allocation funds, and custom models; and PitchBook Platform, research and analysis workstation for investment and research professionals. Further, its PitchBook provides a mobile application, excel plug-in, data feeds, and data solutions. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
Kunal Kapoor
Employees
11,115
Beta
1.08
Industry
Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-47.1%
High: $325.62
From 52W Low
+15.6%
Low: $149.08
Moving Averages
10-Day
$160.40
Above
20-Day
$171.60
Above
50-Day
$197.10
Below
200-Day
$243.60
Below
60-Day Support
$149.08
60-Day Resistance
$221.22
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-29.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-10.41%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.48x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$641M$617M$605M$582M
Gross Profit$392M$376M$375M$351M
Operating Income$160M$128M$125M$114M
Net Income$115M$92M$89M$79M
EPS (Diluted)$2.83$2.17$2.09$1.82
Gross Margin61.1%60.9%61.9%60.2%
Operating Margin24.9%20.7%20.7%19.6%
Net Margin18.0%14.8%14.7%13.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 18.0Profit margin 15.3%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 18.0)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 80/100Score impact: -6.7pt

Volume
80
498K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$78M/day
Float
52
22M shares
Mkt Cap
71
$6.7B
Range
100
118% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$219.85$350.2145.7%Wide
2022$207.11$343.5449.6%Wide
2023$163.28$289.1755.6%Wide
2024$269.51$365.0030.1%Moderate
2025$202.89$338.5050.1%Wide
3-Year Range
76.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
52.5%
Outstanding Shares
41M
Bid-Ask Spread
118.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.