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33

CERT

🏥 Healthcare

Certara, Inc.

Conservative #1023Aggressive #1051High RiskModerate 75ML↑ 17pt
$6.39-3.03%
Day High$6.52
Day Low$6.04
Volume2.0M
Mkt Cap$1.0B
52W Low $652W High $15
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
95.3
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
8.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
78.2%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.28

Why This Score

CERT scores 32.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (75/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 95.3x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (17.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.1 points) applied. CERT's rank of #1023 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.7
Fundamental Score34.3
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.0
6 Month
86.0
Primary
1 Year
90.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-974.5%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
29.8
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-1.1
Final
32.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)26.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.3% to +9.4%
Medium-term
+7.2% to +14.8%
Long-term
+11.2% to +21.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.1/100
Target Upside+98.1%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-69.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality-0.214
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P54
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P3
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (70.1) + 9% ML (87.5) + SHAP(+3.0) = 74.7—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.0pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 17.6%. Max drawdown 52% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -45% (-7.9 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-974.5%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #177 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CERT32.795.38.7%2.6%$1.0B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia, and China. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.

CEO
Jon Resnick
Employees
1,487
Beta
1.48
Industry
Medical - Healthcare Information Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
21.4
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-58.4%
High: $15.38
From 52W Low
+5.9%
Low: $6.04
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.60
Below
20-Day
$7.20
Below
50-Day
$8.40
Below
200-Day
$10.30
Below
60-Day Support
$6.04
60-Day Resistance
$10.21
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 11/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-37.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-9.13%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.18x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
82
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$105M$105M$106M$100M
Gross Profit$65M$64M$64M$62M
Operating Income$3M$10M$8M$6M
Net Income$2M$-2M$5M$7M
EPS (Diluted)$0.01$-0.01$0.03$0.04
Gross Margin62.0%61.1%60.8%61.9%
Operating Margin2.9%9.1%7.2%6.0%
Net Margin1.5%-1.9%4.5%6.6%

Why This Stock

HealthcareValuation below sector median (P/E 95.3)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -9.2pt

Volume
100
2.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
70
$15M/day
Float
100
111M shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.0B
Range
100
143% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.75$45.4862.8%Wide
2022$10.60$29.0493%Wide
2023$11.81$24.9671.5%Wide
2024$9.41$19.8771.4%Wide
2025$8.03$15.6964.6%Wide
3-Year Range
102.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
69.9%
Outstanding Shares
159M
Bid-Ask Spread
143.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.