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AROW

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Arrow Financial Corporation

Conservative #314Aggressive #523Low RiskModerate 61MLโ†‘ 19pt
$34.44+0.03%
Day High$34.80
Day Low$34.08
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$566M
52W Low $2352W High $36
Market Cap
$567M
P/E Ratio
13.1
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
8.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
47.9%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.07

Why This Score

AROW scores 61.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 13.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.07) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (35%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AROW would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.6
Fundamental Score72.2
ML Score74.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.2
6 Month
86.3
Primary
1 Year
90.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
27
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
57.6
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Final
61.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)49.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.3% to +8.1%
Medium-term
+5.9% to +13.3%
Long-term
+8.4% to +18.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 74

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-10.5%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score47.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.57)
Relative Strength vs Sector+25.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.325
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P63
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P60
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P51
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (57.5) + 9% ML (76.9) + SHAP(+5.0) = 64.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.0%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.3pt (ML 19pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #112 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AROW61.613.18.7%18.1%$567M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Arrow Financial Corporation, a bank holding company, provides commercial and consumer banking, and financial products and services. The company's deposit products include demand deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, time deposits, and other time deposits. Its lending activities comprise commercial loans, such as term loans, time notes, and lines of credit; and commercial real estate loans to finance real estate purchases, refinancing, expansions, and improvements to commercial properties, as well as commercial construction and land development loans to finance projects. The company's lending activities also include consumer installment loans to finance personal expenditures, personal lines of credit, overdraft protection, and automobile loans; and residential real estate loans, fixed home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit for consumers to finance home improvements, debt consolidation, education, and other uses. In addition, it maintains an indirect lending program; and sells residential real estate loan originations into the secondary market. Further, the company provides retirement planning, trust, and estate administration services for individuals; and pension, profit-sharing, and employee benefit plan administration services for corporations. Additionally, it offers insurance agency services comprising group health care policies and life insurance, and property and casualty insurance products; and investment advisory services to its proprietary mutual funds, as well as holds a real estate investment trust. The company operates in the northeastern region of New York State in Warren, Washington, Saratoga, Essex, Clinton, Rensselaer, Albany, and Schenectady counties, as well as surrounding areas. It owns 26 branch banking offices; and leases 12 branch banking offices, as well as two residential loan origination offices. Arrow Financial Corporation was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Glens Falls, New York.

CEO
David S. DeMarco
Employees
580
Beta
0.79
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.5%
High: $36.44
From 52W Low
+51.6%
Low: $22.72
Moving Averages
10-Day
$34.50
Below
20-Day
$34.80
Below
50-Day
$33.30
Above
200-Day
$29.30
Above
60-Day Support
$29.11
60-Day Resistance
$36.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+17.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.01%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.93x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
81
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$63M$62M$59M$58M
Gross Profit$43M$42M$40M$34M
Operating Income$17M$17M$14M$8M
Net Income$14M$13M$11M$6M
EPS (Diluted)$0.85$0.78$0.65$0.38
Gross Margin67.7%67.5%66.8%58.7%
Operating Margin26.7%26.6%23.5%14.0%
Net Margin22.3%20.6%18.3%10.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.1Profit margin 18.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.1)

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 27/100Score impact: +1.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
9
76K avg/day
Dollar Vol
19
$3M/day
Float
30
14M shares
Mkt Cap
31
$567M
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score27/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 14/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$28.71$36.0522.7%Narrow
2022$27.67$35.4424.6%Narrow
2023$16.38$33.4968.6%Wide
2024$21.50$34.6346.8%Wide
2025$22.72$33.5638.5%Wide
3-Year Range
71.6%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
85.2%
Outstanding Shares
16M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.