Back to Dashboard
23

FULC

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1234Aggressive #911Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 43pt
$8.73-2.78%
Day High$9.04
Day Low$8.64
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$472M
52W Low $252W High $16
Market Cap
$595M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
2752.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
90.0%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.04

Why This Score

FULC scores 22.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.04) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (196%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (26.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -21.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, FULC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score22.9
Fundamental Score46.6
ML Score6.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
9.0
6 Month
10.1
Primary
1 Year
10.6

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.6B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
86
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
78
Grade B
Base
28.3
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
-0.3
Conviction
-3.5
Divergence
-3.8
Final
22.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

48AVG
Value50
Quality7
Growth100
Stability74
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)87.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-12.8% to -6.3%
Medium-term
-16.9% to -7.8%
Long-term
-21.1% to -9.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 6

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.6/100
Target Upside+94.6%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score86.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+2.0%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+132.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+171.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.843
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P21
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+2.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 6th percentileP6
Blended score: 80% fundamental (47) + 20% ML (6) = 38.538.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.3%; Drawdown 6% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 196% โ†’ -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +2.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -3.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -3.8pt (ML 41pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.6B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #262 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FULC22.9N/A2752.0%0.0%$595M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing products for improving the lives of patients with genetically defined diseases in the areas of high unmet medical need in the United States. Its product candidates are losmapimod, a small molecule for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy; and FTX-6058, an investigational oral fetal hemoglobin inducer for the treatment of sickle cell disease and other hemoglobinopathies, including beta-thalassemia. The company is also discovering drug targets for the treatments of rare neuromuscular, muscular, central nervous system, and hematologic disorders, as well as cardiomyopathies and pulmonary diseases. Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. has research and discovery collaboration agreement with Acceleron Pharma Inc. to identify biological targets to modulate specific pathways associated with a targeted indication within the pulmonary disease space; and has a strategic collaboration and license agreement with MyoKardia, Inc. to discover, develop, and commercialize novel targeted therapies for the treatment of genetic cardiomyopathies. Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. was Incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Alexander C. Sapir
Employees
45
Beta
3.18
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-44.5%
High: $15.74
From 52W Low
+276.3%
Low: $2.32
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.30
Below
20-Day
$10.30
Below
50-Day
$10.80
Below
200-Day
$8.70
Above
60-Day Support
$8.33
60-Day Resistance
$15.74
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 64/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+34.33%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.44x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$300,000$0$-300,000$0
Operating Income$-23M$-22M$-20M$-20M
Net Income$-20M$-20M$-17M$-18M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.31$-0.31$-0.28$-0.28
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 2752.0%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 78/100Score impact: -18.0pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
69
$15M/day
Float
78
48M shares
Mkt Cap
32
$595M
Range
100
580% spread
Composite Liquidity Score78/100
FDCBA
Free Float
88.7%
Outstanding Shares
54M
Bid-Ask Spread
580.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.