Back to Dashboard
35

ALMS

🏥 Healthcare

Alumis Inc. Common Stock

Aggressive #971High RiskF↑ 28pt
$29.98+2.01%
Day High$30.00
Day Low$28.62
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$3.1B
52W Low $352W High $31
Market Cap
$2.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-89.8%
Profit Margin
-1108.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.10

Why This Score

ALMS scores 34.9 on the Aggressive profile, blending a fundamental score (55% weight, emphasizing growth and momentum (91% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (45% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.10) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Strong momentum (471%) — the market is rewarding this name.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (471%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.

Net penalties of -14.9 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ALMS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.9
Fundamental Score44.5
ML Score45.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
0.9
6 Month
1.0
Primary
1 Year
1.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 2.1 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
8.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
81
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
37.5
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
-1.3
Conviction
-2.6
Final
34.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

24AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth20
Stability38
Investment11

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-21.8% to -14.2%
Medium-term
-32.3% to -20.9%
Long-term
-40.6% to -25.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 45

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+36.5%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score81.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+4.7%
6M Momentum+4.7%
Volatility+0.5%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (1.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector+445.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+2.300
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P43
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P21
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 45th percentileP45
Blended score: 55% fundamental (45) + 45% ML (45) = 44.744.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.5%; Drawdown 51% → 0.0pt; Positive momentum 471% → -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -2.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, ANOMALY_MARGIN (2.1pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #162 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALMS34.9N/A0.0%-1108.2%$2.9B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy7 analysts
Buy: 7
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $32Median $37High $50
+25.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Martin Babler
Employees
168
Beta
-2.03
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2%
High: $30.6
From 52W Low
+986.2%
Low: $2.76
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.00
Above
20-Day
$27.10
Above
50-Day
$21.20
Above
200-Day
$8.90
Above
60-Day Support
$7.31
60-Day Resistance
$30.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+236.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+91.44%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.41x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
76
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$2M$3M$17M$0
Gross Profit$2M$3M$17M$-820,000
Operating Income$-115M$-141M$-102M$-99M
Net Income$-111M$59M$-99M$-95M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.06$0.77$-1.82$-1.74
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%N/A
Operating Margin-5580.4%-5271.5%-583.9%N/A
Net Margin-5360.7%2225.1%-569.1%N/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: -45.7pt

Volume
100
3.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$82M/day
Float
87
66M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.9B
Range
100
1009% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$7.46$13.5357.8%Wide
2025$2.76$12.44127.4%Wide
3-Year Range
132.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
63.5%
Outstanding Shares
104M
Bid-Ask Spread
1009.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.