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35

ALHC

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Alignment Healthcare, Inc.

Conservative #979Aggressive #442Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 23pt
$19.22-5.88%
Day High$21.32
Day Low$18.72
Volume4.1M
Mkt Cap$3.8B
52W Low $1252W High $24
Market Cap
$4.0B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
48.3%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
13.5%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
2.04

Why This Score

ALHC scores 35.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (29%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (11.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.04) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. ALHC's rank of #979 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.1
Fundamental Score34.3
ML Score27.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.7
6 Month
80.1
Primary
1 Year
84.3

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (963.2%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
32.8
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.1
Final
35.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value50
Quality11
Growth80
Stability53
Investment87

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.7% to +8.8%
Medium-term
+6.5% to +14.3%
Long-term
+9.4% to +19.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 27

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.4/100
Target Upside+22.8%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.82)
Relative Strength vs Sector+4.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.6)
Momentum Quality+0.212
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P83
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P77
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 34 relative to sector peers34/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 27th percentileP27
Blended score: 80% fundamental (34) + 20% ML (27) = 32.832.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 26% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (963.2%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #159 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALHC35.1N/A48.3%-0.6%$4.0B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Alignment Healthcare, Inc., a tech-enabled Medicare advantage company, operates consumer-centric health care platform. It provides customized health care in the United States to seniors and those who need it through its Medicare advantage plans. The company owns Medicare advantage plans in the states of California, North Carolina, and Nevada. It also coordinates and provides covered health care services, including professional, institutional, and ancillary services to members enrolled in certain benefit plans of unaffiliated Medicare Advantage Health Maintenance Organizations. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Orange, California.

CEO
John E. Kao
Employees
1,679
Beta
1.17
Industry
Medical - Healthcare Plans
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
28.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.5%
High: $23.87
From 52W Low
+65.3%
Low: $11.63
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.20
Below
20-Day
$20.80
Below
50-Day
$21.00
Below
200-Day
$17.10
Above
60-Day Support
$18.23
60-Day Resistance
$23.87
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+12.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.8%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$16.26
Stop Entry Now Target
$26.66
Entry Zone
$20.79 โ€“ $21.63
SMA50 pullback zone ($20.79โ€“$21.63)
Exit Target
$25.88
52-week high / +22% target ($25.88)
Stop Level
$16.76
Below SMA200 ($16.76)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.05Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.0B$994M$1.0B$927M
Gross Profit$106M$126M$134M$106M
Operating Income$-10M$8M$23M$-5M
Net Income$-11M$4M$16M$-9M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.05$0.02$0.07$-0.05
Gross Margin10.5%12.6%13.2%11.4%
Operating Margin-1.0%0.8%2.2%-0.6%
Net Margin-1.1%0.4%1.5%-1.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 48.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 95/100Score impact: -27.4pt

Volume
100
2.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$56M/day
Float
100
165M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.0B
Range
100
105% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.95$28.5982.1%Wide
2022$6.14$19.17103%Wide
2023$4.88$13.0591.1%Wide
2024$4.46$14.25104.6%Wide
2025$11.30$21.0660.3%Wide
3-Year Range
130.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
82.6%
Outstanding Shares
200M
Bid-Ask Spread
105.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.