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42

PRVA

🏥 Healthcare

Privia Health Group, Inc.

Conservative #798Aggressive #1261Low RiskHigh 98
$22.65+5.20%
Day High$22.75
Day Low$21.00
Volume1.4M
Mkt Cap$2.8B
52W Low $1952W High $27
Market Cap
$2.7B
P/E Ratio
148.6
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
4.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-37.7%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

PRVA scores 41.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (98/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 148.6x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-4.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score41.9
Fundamental Score50.5
ML Score8.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
59.2
6 Month
66.2
Primary
1 Year
69.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-460.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
35
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
42.0
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.1
Divergence
-4.1
Final
41.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)28.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)57.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.1% to +3.1%
Medium-term
-1.1% to +5.3%
Long-term
-1.1% to +7.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 8

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score34.9/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.5%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.27)
Relative Strength vs Sector-34.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality-0.086
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P48
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P3
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P77
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (70.0) + 9% ML (68.9) + SHAP(+1.8) = 71.7
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.1%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.5 pts). Price momentum -10% (-1.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.7B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.4pt (conviction=98)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-460.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #121 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PRVA41.9148.64.7%0.9%$2.7B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy21 analysts
Buy: 19Hold: 2
Price Target
$30consensus
Low $22Median $31High $34
+30.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Privia Health Group, Inc. operates as a national physician-enablement company in the United States. The company collaborates with medical groups, health plans, and health systems to optimize physician practices, enhance patient experiences, and reward doctors for delivering care in-person and virtual settings. It offers technology and population health tools to enhance independent providers' workflows; management services organization that enable providers to focus on their patients by reducing administrative work; single-TIN medical group that facilitates payer negotiation, clinical integration and alignment of financial incentives; accountable care organization, which engage patients, reduce inappropriate utilization, and enhance coordination and patient quality metrics to drive value-based care; and network for purchasers and payers that enable providers to connect with new patient populations and create custom contracts. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Privia Health Group, Inc. was a former subsidiary of Brighton Health Group Holdings, LLC.

CEO
Parth Mehrotra
Employees
1,140
Beta
0.83
Industry
Medical - Healthcare Information Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.6%
High: $26.51
From 52W Low
+20.7%
Low: $18.77
Moving Averages
10-Day
$21.90
Above
20-Day
$22.10
Above
50-Day
$23.10
Below
200-Day
$22.90
Below
60-Day Support
$21
60-Day Resistance
$25.16
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 47/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.6%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
16
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$580M$521M$480M$461M
Gross Profit$61M$48M$46M$48M
Operating Income$14M$3M$5M$5M
Net Income$7M$3M$4M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.05$0.02$0.03$0.03
Gross Margin10.5%9.1%9.5%10.4%
Operating Margin2.5%0.6%1.1%1.1%
Net Margin1.2%0.5%0.9%1.0%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 81/100Score impact: +4.7pt

Volume
88
695K avg/day
Dollar Vol
70
$15M/day
Float
100
105M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.7B
Range
81
41% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
85.1%
Outstanding Shares
123M
Bid-Ask Spread
41.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.