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AAOI

💻 Technology

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

Conservative #965Aggressive #191Moderate RiskModerate 67ML↑ 17pt
$58.12+3.29%
Day High$59.25
Day Low$56.85
Volume3.6M
Mkt Cap$4.0B
52W Low $1052W High $59
Market Cap
$3.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
14.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-233.2%
Profit Margin
-37.0%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.42

Why This Score

AAOI scores 35.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (26.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-9.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.8
Fundamental Score31.4
ML Score89.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
45.0
6 Month
50.4
Primary
1 Year
53.0

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
40.0
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-6.4
Final
35.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)52.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.7% to +1.4%
Medium-term
-3.6% to +2.5%
Long-term
-4.6% to +3.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 89

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.7/100
Target Upside-14.6%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.0%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+19.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.81)
Relative Strength vs Sector+99.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.8)
Momentum Quality+0.779
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P60
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P3
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 37 relative to sector peers37/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (37.4) + 9% ML (52.5) + SHAP(+1.3) = 40.0—
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 26.9%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.7 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.2pt (103% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-11.8%) exceeds net margin (-37.0%) by 25pp — possible write-downFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #218 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AAOI35.8N/A14.6%-37.0%$3.5B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 5Sell: 4
Price Target
$46consensus
Low $43Median $45High $50
-20.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells various fiber-optic networking products worldwide. It offers optical modules, lasers, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, and turn-key equipment, as well as headend, node, and distribution equipment. The company sells its products to internet data center operators, cable television and telecom equipment manufacturers, and internet service providers through its direct and indirect sales channels. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.

CEO
Chih-Hsiang Lin
Employees
3,309
Beta
3.35
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
77.8
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.9%
High: $59.25
From 52W Low
+498.6%
Low: $9.71
Moving Averages
10-Day
$49.10
Above
20-Day
$46.40
Above
50-Day
$39.80
Above
200-Day
$28.80
Above
60-Day Support
$24.83
60-Day Resistance
$59.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+101.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+27.54%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
62
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$119M$103M$100M$100M
Gross Profit$33M$31M$31M$29M
Operating Income$-18M$-16M$-9M$-6M
Net Income$-18M$-9M$-9M$-120M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.28$-0.16$-0.18$-2.60
Gross Margin28.0%30.3%30.6%28.7%
Operating Margin-15.3%-15.5%-8.9%-6.5%
Net Margin-15.1%-8.8%-9.2%-119.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 14.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: -32.3pt

Volume
100
5.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$274M/day
Float
86
65M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.5B
Range
100
467% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$5.12$11.8079%Wide
2022$1.48$5.38113.6%Wide
2023$1.60$24.08175.1%Wide
2024$6.70$44.50147.7%Wide
2025$9.71$41.96124.8%Wide
3-Year Range
186.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
95.3%
Outstanding Shares
68M
Bid-Ask Spread
467.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.