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PGY

💻 Technology

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

Conservative #992Aggressive #790High RiskHigh 99
$11.85+8.02%
Day High$11.89
Day Low$11.13
Volume3.1M
Mkt Cap$953M
52W Low $952W High $45
Market Cap
$956M
P/E Ratio
12.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
25.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
120.3%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.92

Why This Score

PGY scores 34.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.7% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 12.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (99/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (25.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.92) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. PGY's rank of #992 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.7
Fundamental Score33.4
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.0
6 Month
69.2
Primary
1 Year
72.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
30.7
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.8
Final
34.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)29.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.2% to +4.1%
Medium-term
+0.4% to +7.0%
Long-term
+0.9% to +9.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+186.5%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.7%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+63.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality-0.011
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P81
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P68
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P97
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 77 relative to sector peers77/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 72th percentileP72
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (77.4) + 9% ML (72.1) + SHAP(+3.0) = 79.9
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.5pt (conviction=99)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 25.8%. Max drawdown 66% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-190.6%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.9x — elevated balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 15.0% (original: 17.0%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #226 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PGY34.712.025.6%6.5%$956M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 4
Price Target
$31consensus
Low $25Median $33High $35
+163.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

CEO
Gal Krubiner
Employees
527
Beta
5.88
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
26.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-73.7%
High: $44.99
From 52W Low
+39.4%
Low: $8.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.10
Below
20-Day
$15.00
Below
50-Day
$19.60
Below
200-Day
$24.90
Below
60-Day Support
$10.51
60-Day Resistance
$26.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 15/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-52.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+12.17%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.13x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$321M$340M$318M$283M
Gross Profit$131M$139M$126M$116M
Operating Income$66M$80M$56M$48M
Net Income$34M$23M$17M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$0.36$0.23$0.20$0.10
Gross Margin40.8%41.0%39.7%40.9%
Operating Margin20.5%23.5%17.8%16.9%
Net Margin10.7%6.6%5.2%2.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 12.0Revenue growth 25.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.0)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -14.7pt

Volume
100
3.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
94
$40M/day
Float
76
46M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$956M
Range
100
429% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$114.36$122.937.2%Narrow
2022$6.84$414.00193.5%Wide
2023$9.36$33.96113.6%Wide
2024$8.20$20.0083.7%Wide
2025$8.27$44.99137.9%Wide
3-Year Range
138.3%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
57.5%
Outstanding Shares
80M
Bid-Ask Spread
429.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.