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LASR

💻 Technology

nLIGHT, Inc.

Conservative #830Aggressive #702Moderate RiskHigh 100
$60.60+5.14%
Day High$61.80
Day Low$58.30
Volume2.0M
Mkt Cap$3.3B
52W Low $652W High $62
Market Cap
$3.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-5.4%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-45.9%
Profit Margin
-19.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.14

Why This Score

LASR scores 40.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (470%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Above-average volatility (27.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-10.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.7
Fundamental Score43.9
ML Score58.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
35.3
6 Month
39.5
Primary
1 Year
41.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
36.7
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
+2.4
Final
40.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)39.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-9.8% to -4.6%
Medium-term
-13.2% to -5.6%
Long-term
-16.6% to -6.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 58

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+4.7%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+388.6%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector+466.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+4.665
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P11
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P12
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 45th percentileP45
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (45.3) + 9% ML (44.0) + SHAP(+1.9) = 47.1
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 27.0%Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (470% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($3.1B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (99.8%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #183 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LASR40.7N/A-5.4%-19.1%$3.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 11Hold: 1
Price Target
$51consensus
Low $40Median $52High $60
-16.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

nLIGHT, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor and fiber lasers for industrial, microfabrication, and aerospace and defense applications. It operates in two segments, Laser Products and Advanced Development. The company also provides fiber amplifiers, and beam combination and control systems for use in high-energy laser systems in directed energy applications. It sells its products through direct sales force in the United States, China, South Korea, and European countries, as well as through various independent sales representatives and distributors in Asia, Europe, and South America. The company was formerly known as nLight Photonics Corporation and changed its name to nLIGHT, Inc. in January 2016. nLIGHT, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Camas, Washington.

CEO
Scott H. Keeney
Employees
800
Beta
2.31
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
77.4
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.9%
High: $61.8
From 52W Low
+877.4%
Low: $6.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$54.90
Above
20-Day
$51.70
Above
50-Day
$44.80
Above
200-Day
$30.20
Above
60-Day Support
$31.91
60-Day Resistance
$61.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 94/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+100.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+52.97%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.45x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$67M$62M$52M$47M
Gross Profit$21M$18M$14M$1M
Operating Income$-7M$-4M$-10M$-26M
Net Income$-7M$-4M$-8M$-25M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.14$-0.07$-0.16$-0.52
Gross Margin31.1%29.9%26.7%2.4%
Operating Margin-10.9%-6.9%-18.6%-55.8%
Net Margin-10.3%-5.8%-15.7%-52.7%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -23.1pt

Volume
96
900K avg/day
Dollar Vol
99
$49M/day
Float
79
49M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$3.1B
Range
100
852% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.00$41.3156.9%Wide
2022$8.22$25.98103.9%Wide
2023$8.13$15.9164.7%Wide
2024$9.64$14.7541.9%Wide
2025$6.20$39.99146.3%Wide
3-Year Range
146.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
89.7%
Outstanding Shares
55M
Bid-Ask Spread
852.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.