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VRRM

💻 Technology

Verra Mobility Corporation

Conservative #833Aggressive #1235Low RiskModerate 66ML↑ 17pt
$16.18-13.52%
Day High$17.38
Day Low$15.58
Volume5.6M
Mkt Cap$2.6B
52W Low $1652W High $26
Market Cap
$3.0B
P/E Ratio
59.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
7.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-44.8%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
2.65

Why This Score

VRRM scores 40.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 59.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.65) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.7
Fundamental Score47.9
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.6
6 Month
72.2
Primary
1 Year
76.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-401.3%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
40.7
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-3.1
Final
40.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)29.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.8% to +2.2%
Medium-term
-2.3% to +3.8%
Long-term
-2.9% to +5.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+68.7%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.76)
Relative Strength vs Sector-23.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality-0.143
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P19
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P57
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 75th percentileP75
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (58.4) + 9% ML (75.4) + SHAP(+1.8) = 61.7—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.4 points. Max drawdown 28% (-7.9 pts). Price momentum -20% (-2.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($3.0B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.0pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-401.3%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.6x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #185 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VRRM40.759.17.6%5.4%$3.0B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 3
Price Target
$28consensus
Low $24Median $28High $31
+70.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Verra Mobility Corporation provides smart mobility technology solutions and services in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Commercial Services; Government Solutions; and Parking Solutions. The Government Solutions segment offers automated safety solutions, including services and technologies that enable photo enforcement through road safety camera programs, which detects and process traffic violations related to red light, speed, school bus, and city bus lanes. This segment serves municipalities, counties, school districts, and law enforcement agencies. The Commercial Services segment provides automated toll and violations management, and title and registration services to rental car companies, fleet management companies, and other large fleet owners. The Parking Solutions segment provides an integrated suite of parking software and hardware solutions to universities, municipalities, parking operators, healthcare facilities, and transportation hubs. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Mesa, Arizona.

CEO
David Martin Roberts
Employees
1,754
Beta
0.59
Industry
Information Technology Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
24.3
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-38.7%
High: $26.38
From 52W Low
+3.9%
Low: $15.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.30
Below
20-Day
$18.60
Below
50-Day
$20.80
Below
200-Day
$23.20
Below
60-Day Support
$15.58
60-Day Resistance
$23.41
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 6/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-30.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.32x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
82
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$258M$262M$236M$223M
Gross Profit$263M$253M$222M$210M
Operating Income$43M$75M$63M$57M
Net Income$19M$47M$39M$32M
EPS (Diluted)$0.12$0.29$0.24$0.20
Gross Margin102.1%96.5%94.2%94.3%
Operating Margin16.7%28.6%26.8%25.7%
Net Margin7.3%17.9%16.3%14.5%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -0.6pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$27M/day
Float
100
158M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$3.0B
Range
87
54% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.1%
Outstanding Shares
160M
Bid-Ask Spread
54.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.