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59

SUPN

🏥 Healthcare

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #382Aggressive #69Low Risk
$55.75-1.01%
Day High$56.38
Day Low$54.05
Volume1.2M
Mkt Cap$3.2B
52W Low $2952W High $58
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
8.9%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
5512.8%
Profit Margin
-2.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

SUPN scores 59.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (73/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (10.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-0.6 points) applied. SUPN's rank of #382 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.2
Fundamental Score53.1
ML Score72.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.8
6 Month
74.6
Primary
1 Year
78.5

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality — significant fundamental weaknesses
2 quality flags detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (476.0%) — earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $2.9B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
72
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
56.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-0.6
Final
59.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value50
Quality13
Growth79
Stability79
Investment49

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.1% to +7.0%
Medium-term
+4.1% to +11.5%
Long-term
+6.1% to +16.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 72

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.1/100
Target Upside+20.8%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+45.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.22)
Relative Strength vs Sector+34.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.484
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P70
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 72th percentileP72
Blended score: 80% fundamental (53) + 20% ML (72) = 56.956.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.6pt (ML 19pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (476.0%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.9B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #48 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SUPN59.2N/A8.9%-2.8%$3.2B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. Its commercial products are Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate product indicated for the treatment of epilepsy, as well as for the prophylaxis of migraine headache; and Oxtellar XR, an extended release oxcarbazepine for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures in adults and children between 6 to 17 years of age. The company's commercial products also comprise Qelbree, a selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in pediatric patients 6 to 17 years of age; APOKYN for the acute intermittent treatment of hypomobility or off episodes in patients with advanced Parkinson's Disease (PD); XADAGO for treating levodopa/carbidopa in patients with PD experiencing off episodes; MYOBLOC, a Type B toxin product indicated for the treatment of cervical dystonia and sialorrhea in adults; GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia in patients with PD; and Osmolex ER for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and drug-induced extrapyramidal reaction in adult patients. In addition, its product candidates include Qelbree (SPN-812), which has completed Phase III clinical trials that is used for the treatment of ADHD; SPN-830, a late-stage drug/device combination product candidate for the prevention of off episodes in PD patients; SPN-817, a novel product candidate in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of severe epilepsy; SPN-820, a product candidate in Phase II clinical trials for treating resistant depression; and SPN-443 and SPN-446, which are in preclinical stage for treating CNS. The company markets and sells its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

CEO
Jack A. Khattar
Employees
674
Beta
0.72
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
70.4
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.6%
High: $59.68
From 52W Low
+91.2%
Low: $29.16
Moving Averages
10-Day
$52.10
Above
20-Day
$51.00
Above
50-Day
$50.40
Above
200-Day
$43.50
Above
60-Day Support
$44.09
60-Day Resistance
$59.68
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 98/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+28.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.49%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.45x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$718.4B$192M$165M$150M
Gross Profit$361.3B$144M$149M$134M
Operating Income$-52.0B$-60M$12M$-10M
Net Income$-38.5B$-45M$22M$-12M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.07$-0.80$0.40$-0.21
Gross Margin50.3%74.8%89.8%89.5%
Operating Margin-7.2%-31.4%7.3%-6.8%
Net Margin-5.4%-23.5%13.6%-7.9%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 80/100Score impact: -23.7pt

Volume
87
671K avg/day
Dollar Vol
89
$34M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
62
$3.2B
Range
100
98% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.15$34.5039.4%Wide
2022$24.95$38.4042.5%Wide
2023$21.99$42.0962.7%Wide
2024$25.53$39.3742.7%Wide
2025$29.16$57.6565.6%Wide
3-Year Range
89.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
98.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.