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STX

💻 Technology

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

Conservative #103Aggressive #11Low RiskHigh 84
$421.85+6.52%
Day High$426.50
Day Low$408.30
Volume3.4M
Mkt Cap$92.0B
52W Low $6352W High $460
Market Cap
$92.9B
P/E Ratio
48.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
38.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
338.5%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

STX scores 69.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -11.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (94/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (84/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (326%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 48.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (17.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score69.7
Fundamental Score69.2
ML Score94.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.4
6 Month
67.5
Primary
1 Year
71.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.6%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
67.2
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+0.9
Divergence
-1.5
Final
69.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

78AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth90
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)93.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)56.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.5% to +3.8%
Medium-term
+0.2% to +6.7%
Long-term
+0.8% to +9.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 94

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.6/100
Target Upside-0.7%
Coverage52 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+3.3%
6M Momentum+1.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+170.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.48)
Relative Strength vs Sector+322.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+3.246
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P94
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P24
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P26
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 70th percentileP70
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (62.0) + 9% ML (68.2) + SHAP(+4.4) = 67.0
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 17.4%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (326% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($92.9B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.7pt (conviction=84)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #22 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
STX69.748.138.9%16.1%$92.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy52 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 24Hold: 23Sell: 4
Price Target
$413consensus
Low $270Median $440High $505
-2.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

CEO
William David Mosley
Employees
30,000
Beta
1.64
Industry
Computer Hardware
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8.3%
High: $459.84
From 52W Low
+567.6%
Low: $63.19
Moving Averages
10-Day
$415.00
Above
20-Day
$420.00
Above
50-Day
$351.90
Above
200-Day
$228.40
Above
60-Day Support
$250.53
60-Day Resistance
$459.84
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+84.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+49.62%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.76x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2026Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$2.8B$2.6B$2.4B$2.2B
Gross Profit$1.2B$1.0B$914M$760M
Operating Income$846M$707M$568M$431M
Net Income$593M$549M$488M$340M
EPS (Diluted)$2.60$2.43$2.24$1.57
Gross Margin41.6%39.4%37.4%35.2%
Operating Margin29.9%26.9%23.2%20.0%
Net Margin21.0%20.9%20.0%15.7%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 38.9%Profit margin 16.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 100/100Score impact: -11.2pt

Volume
100
4.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$1.7B/day
Float
100
217M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$92.9B
Range
100
628% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$70.36$116.9349.7%Wide
2022$47.47$117.6785%Wide
2023$50.94$87.9353.3%Wide
2024$79.39$115.3236.9%Wide
2025$63.19$308.93132.1%Wide
3-Year Range
143.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.7%
Outstanding Shares
218M
Bid-Ask Spread
628.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.