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66

ADSK

💻 Technology

Autodesk, Inc.

Conservative #173Aggressive #238Low RiskMixed 57ML↑ 22pt
$224.81+1.77%
Day High$225.80
Day Low$219.05
Volume1.7M
Mkt Cap$47.9B
52W Low $21652W High $329
Market Cap
$49.2B
P/E Ratio
44.8
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
11.5%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
22.7%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.98

Why This Score

ADSK scores 65.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 42.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 44.8x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-2.3 points) applied. ADSK's rank of #173 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.8
Fundamental Score58.0
ML Score88.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.0
6 Month
86.1
Primary
1 Year
90.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
64.0
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-2.3
Final
65.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth75
Stability60
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.4% to +7.3%
Medium-term
+4.3% to +11.6%
Long-term
+6.5% to +16.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 88

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.0/100
Target Upside+64.2%
Coverage50 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector-19.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.6)
Momentum Quality-0.114
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P53
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P28
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P44
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (57.6) + 9% ML (79.2) + SHAP(+2.4) = 61.9—
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.1%. Stability bonus of +9.8 points. Max drawdown 27% (-7.7 pts). Price momentum -16% (-2.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($49.2B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.7pt (ML 22pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #44 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADSK65.844.811.5%18.1%$49.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy50 analysts
Buy: 38Hold: 8Sell: 4
Price Target
$356consensus
Low $290Median $368High $380
+58.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; AutoCAD, a software for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections tools for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment collection industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Vault, a data management software to manage data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and ShotGrid, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry. It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

CEO
Andrew Anagnost
Employees
15,300
Beta
1.45
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.7%
High: $329.09
From 52W Low
+4.6%
Low: $215.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$226.30
Below
20-Day
$237.20
Below
50-Day
$265.20
Below
200-Day
$293.40
Below
60-Day Support
$215.01
60-Day Resistance
$312.62
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 30/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.24%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.25x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$1.9B$1.8B$1.6B$1.6B
Gross Profit$1.7B$1.6B$1.5B$1.5B
Operating Income$475M$444M$233M$383M
Net Income$343M$313M$152M$303M
EPS (Diluted)$1.60$1.46$0.70$1.40
Gross Margin92.4%92.3%90.2%89.8%
Operating Margin25.6%25.2%14.3%23.5%
Net Margin18.5%17.8%9.3%18.6%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 11.5%Profit margin 18.1%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -0.4pt

Volume
100
2.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$431M/day
Float
100
211M shares
Mkt Cap
98
$49.2B
Range
86
52% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.2%
Outstanding Shares
213M
Bid-Ask Spread
52.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.