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42

SMCI

💻 Technology

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Conservative #769Aggressive #277High RiskModerate 62ML↑ 19pt
$33.60+7.93%
Day High$33.85
Day Low$31.52
Volume32.0M
Mkt Cap$20.1B
52W Low $2852W High $62
Market Cap
$18.3B
P/E Ratio
22.3
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
46.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-9.0%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.76

Why This Score

SMCI scores 42.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 16.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.9
Fundamental Score34.2
ML Score86.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.3
6 Month
82.0
Primary
1 Year
86.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
44.5
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.5
Divergence
-5.5
Final
42.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value70
Quality55
Growth75
Stability60
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)32.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.0% to +6.7%
Medium-term
+3.7% to +10.8%
Long-term
+5.4% to +14.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 86

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.0/100
Target Upside+51.6%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.99)
Relative Strength vs Sector-29.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.130
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P95
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P53
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P83
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.8σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 69 relative to sector peers69/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (68.7) + 9% ML (87.5) + SHAP(+2.4) = 72.8—
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($18.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 19pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 19.4%. Max drawdown 51% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -26% (-4.3 pts)High

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #173 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SMCI42.922.346.6%4.8%$18.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold22 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 13Sell: 1
Price Target
$47consensus
Low $26Median $47High $64
+40.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Charles Liang
Employees
5,684
Beta
1.52
Industry
Computer Hardware
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-46.1%
High: $62.36
From 52W Low
+21.7%
Low: $27.6
Moving Averages
10-Day
$31.30
Above
20-Day
$31.40
Above
50-Day
$30.90
Above
200-Day
$41.70
Below
60-Day Support
$27.75
60-Day Resistance
$35.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 14/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-4.76%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
76
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$12.7B$5.0B$5.8B$4.6B
Gross Profit$799M$467M$544M$440M
Operating Income$474M$182M$228M$147M
Net Income$401M$168M$195M$109M
EPS (Diluted)$0.60$0.26$0.31$0.17
Gross Margin6.3%9.3%9.5%9.6%
Operating Margin3.7%3.6%4.0%3.2%
Net Margin3.2%3.4%3.4%2.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 22.3Revenue growth 46.6%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 22.3)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -24.0pt

Volume
100
31.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$976M/day
Float
100
499M shares
Mkt Cap
84
$18.3B
Range
100
126% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$3.21$4.7137.9%Wide
2022$3.41$9.5294.5%Wide
2023$6.90$35.70135.2%Wide
2024$17.25$122.90150.8%Wide
2025$25.71$66.4488.4%Wide
3-Year Range
178.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
83.4%
Outstanding Shares
599M
Bid-Ask Spread
126.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.