Back to Dashboard
44

GCBC

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Greene County Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #787Aggressive #928Low RiskHigh 80
$23.00+1.95%
Day High$23.71
Day Low$22.71
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$392M
52W Low $2052W High $27
Market Cap
$389M
P/E Ratio
10.6
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
13.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
25.7%
Profit Margin
26.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.83

Why This Score

GCBC scores 44.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 26.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.6x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.6% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (80/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, GCBC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.1
Fundamental Score64.6
ML Score67.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.0
6 Month
69.3
Primary
1 Year
72.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
36
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
40.1
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+0.7
Final
44.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

70AVG
Value84
Quality51
Growth72
Stability80
Investment61

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)73.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)63.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.6% to +2.5%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +4.2%
Long-term
-2.3% to +6.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 67

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score36.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-6.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.06)
Relative Strength vs Sector-15.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.057
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P73
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P79
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P67
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
Blended score: 80% fundamental (65) + 20% ML (67) = 65.165.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 10% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +0.7pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #224 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GCBC44.110.613.1%26.0%$389M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, NOW accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, non-interest bearing checking accounts, and individual retirement accounts. The company's loan portfolio consists of residential, construction and land, and multifamily mortgage loans; commercial real estate mortgage loans; consumer loans, such as loans on new and used automobiles, personal loans, and home equity loans, as well as other consumer installment loans, including passbook loans, unsecured home improvement loans, recreational vehicle loans, and deposit account overdrafts; and commercial loans. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of 17 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Catskill, New York. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. is a subsidiary of Greene County Bancorp, MHC.

CEO
Donald E. Gibson
Employees
189
Beta
0.39
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
29.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.1%
High: $27.41
From 52W Low
+15%
Low: $20
Moving Averages
10-Day
$23.00
Below
20-Day
$23.50
Below
50-Day
$23.10
Below
200-Day
$23.10
Below
60-Day Support
$21.5
60-Day Resistance
$25.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 37/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.71%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.7x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
6
Confidence: 80%
Recent Gap UpRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$37M$36M$35M$34M
Gross Profit$22M$20M$21M$19M
Operating Income$12M$10M$11M$9M
Net Income$10M$9M$9M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$0.60$0.52$0.55$0.47
Gross Margin60.1%56.9%61.9%56.4%
Operating Margin31.5%28.6%31.8%26.6%
Net Margin28.1%24.9%27.0%23.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.6Revenue growth 13.1%Profit margin 26.0%

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -7.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
14K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$304K/day
Float
0
7M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$389M
Range
0
37% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.96$19.1346.1%Wide
2022$17.50$44.9087.8%Wide
2023$17.50$36.7871%Wide
2024$24.10$37.2542.9%Wide
2025$20.00$27.8332.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
72.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
40.7%
Outstanding Shares
17M
Bid-Ask Spread
37.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.