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65

NMFC

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

New Mountain Finance Corporation

Conservative #181Aggressive #767Low RiskModerate 63MLโ†‘ 19pt
$7.83-4.04%
Day High$8.08
Day Low$7.69
Volume3.2M
Mkt Cap$808M
52W Low $852W High $12
Market Cap
$841M
P/E Ratio
12.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-3.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-16.2%
Profit Margin
18.0%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.36

Why This Score

NMFC scores 65.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.9% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. NMFC's rank of #181 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.5
Fundamental Score60.6
ML Score75.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.3
6 Month
81.9
Primary
1 Year
86.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.049 vol with only -3.6% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
62.7
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-1.2
Final
65.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)54.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.1% to +4.1%
Medium-term
-2.9% to +6.6%
Long-term
-3.6% to +9.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 75

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.2/100
Target Upside+23.7%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-27.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.9)
Momentum Quality-0.158
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
38%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P13
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P77
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 69 relative to sector peers69/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 87th percentileP87
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (68.6) + 9% ML (87.4) + SHAP(+3.1) = 73.4โ€”
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 17% (-3.4 pts). Price momentum -19% (-2.8 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 19pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-20.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only -3.6% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #57 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NMFC65.512.2-3.6%18.0%$841M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

New Mountain Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: NMFC), a business development company is a private equity / buyouts and loan fund specializes in directly investing and lending to middle market companies in defensive growth industries. The fund prefers investing in buyout and middle market companies. It also makes investments in debt securities at all levels of the capital structure including first and second lien debt, unsecured notes and mezzanine securities. In some cases, its investments may also include equity interests. It targets energy, specialty chemicals and materials, trading companies and distributors, commercial printing, diversified support services, education services, environmental and facilities services, office services and supplies, media, distributors, health care services, health care facilities, application software, business services, systems software, federal services, distribution and logistics, interactive home entertainment, telecommunication services, hydroelectric power generation, electric power generation by fossil fuels, electric power generation by nuclear fuels, health care technology, and security and alarm services. The fund seeks to invest in United States of America. It seeks to invest between $10 million and $50 million per transaction. The firm invests through both primary originations and open-market secondary purchases. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $200 million and target investments up to a $125 million hold size. The fund seeks a majority stake in its portfolio companies.

CEO
John R. Kline
Employees
0
Beta
0.61
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34.9%
High: $12.02
From 52W Low
+1.8%
Low: $7.69
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.20
Below
20-Day
$8.30
Below
50-Day
$8.80
Below
200-Day
$9.80
Below
60-Day Support
$7.69
60-Day Resistance
$9.84
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 14/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-20.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.13%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.13x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$26M$81M$97M$123M
Gross Profit$252M$67M$8M$25M
Operating Income$206M$44M$8M$24M
Net Income$93M$12M$8M$23M
EPS (Diluted)$0.45$0.11$0.07$0.22
Gross Margin962.1%83.4%8.2%20.0%
Operating Margin787.3%54.9%8.2%19.0%
Net Margin355.2%15.1%8.0%19.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.2Profit margin 18.0%Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 75/100Score impact: +3.8pt

Volume
95
883K avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
92
79M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$841M
Range
86
52% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.34x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.8%
Outstanding Shares
103M
Bid-Ask Spread
52.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.